2026 Fantasy Football Busts 1.0: Avoid Patrick Mahomes, A.J. Brown, and Trey McBride in the early rounds

Heath Cummings breaks down a few players you'll want to avoid in the early rounds

Heath Cummings

May 13, 2026

10:51 am ET

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2 min read

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Generally, in my busts column, I like to make the point early and often that my calling someone a bust does not mean I think they are bad at football. If you are in the NFL you are definitely good at football. If you are being drafted high enough to be called a bust, you just may be great at football. Of course, in mid-May, we don't know exactly where ADP will settle by August, so this may be better titled 'Potential Busts' or 'Guys I think everyone is going to draft too high'. Not quite as catchy as Busts 1.0, is it?

Certainly, the most controversial name on my early bust list is Trey McBride. McBride lapped the field at tight end last year and was arguably worth a Round 1 pick based on his production. Of course, you don't get credit in 2026 for 2025 production. And I would argue that McBride's situation has changed enough that you should not count on similar production.

The two most obvious changes in Arizona are a new coaching staff and the team's selection of Jeremiyah Love at third overall. The latter makes it likely the Cardinals run more and throw less; the former makes it likely that McBride's target share falls. Both were outliers last year.

Arizona's 649 pass attempts in 2025 were the most in the NFL. A lot of that was due to game scripts in the second half of the season. They lost their last nine games, and six of those nine losses were by at least three scores. The Cardinals may still be behind a lot in 2026, but it is unlikely they face as many big deficits. When they do pass, I would not expect them to target McBride as often as they have the past three seasons.

As I wrote about in Breakouts 1.0, Drew Petzing ran one of the most tight-end-friendly offenses in the league the past three seasons, with 27% of the team's targets going to tight ends. The Cardinals' new head coach, Mike LaFleur, has run Sean McVay's offense the past three seasons, with 18% of targets going to tight ends. Two rebuttals to this argument are true. One, they didn't have Trey McBride in Los Angeles. Two, the Rams changed gears last year, and threw 25% of their passes to the tight end. But they also led the league in three tight end sets and spread those targets around.

The final reason I expect a step back from McBride is simple regression. He scored six touchdowns on 292 targets in his first three seasons in the NFL. He scored 11 touchdowns on 169 targets last year.

McBride was so much better than everyone else at the position last year that he could lose four points per game and still be TE1 in 2026. That is pretty close to my expectation. There is no way he will be worth a Round 2 pick if that happens, and Round 3 would be a stretch. The tight end position is deeper than ever, with at least six legitimate candidates to be TE1 this year. You can find some of them three or four rounds later than McBride. That is the better play in 2026.

Here are seven more early busts:

Busts 1.0

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Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City

• #15

Age: 30

• Experience: 10 yrs.

Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)

OVERALL RNK

126th

QB RNK

15th

PROJ PTS

360.7

SOS

ADP

2025 Stats

PAYDS

3587

RUYDS

422

INT

FPTS/G

23.6

This one requires the most ADP projection. In early drafts, people are rightly wary of Mahomes' coming off a major leg injury. But reports are positive and if he is at training camp as expected in July, I expect his ADP to rise in a hurry. I have three big concerns. One, the Chiefs acquisition of Kenneth Walker and the return of Eric Bienemy makes me think they will run significantly more. Two, even if Mahomes is 'healthy' for Week 1, I expect he will run significantly less. Three, they didn't really solve their problems against man defense, namely that they don't have receivers that can regularly beat man coverage. Fewer pass attempts, fewer rush attempts, no huge increase in passing efficiency. That is a bad combination and I am not sure Mahomes will be a top 12 QB in Fantasy this year.

A.J. Brown

PHI

Philadelphia

• #11

Age: 28

• Experience: 8 yrs.

Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)

OVERALL RNK

33rd

WR RNK

14th

PROJ PTS

248.2

SOS

ADP

2025 Stats

REC

TAR

121

REYDS

1003

FPTS/G

14.7

People are much more excited about A.J. Brown in New England than I am. While his efficiency may improve, I do not like to bet on 29-year-old wide receivers bouncing back off career low efficiency. I am also not sure that he will see a big boost in targets in a run-heavy Patriots offense that has traditionally spread the ball around a lot. He is going to end up getting drafted at the two-three turn in drafts and I am not going to be comfortable with him before Round 4.

Bucky Irving