Yankees vs. Giants season-opening parlay: Aaron Judge begins quest for historic fifth career 50-homer season

The 2026 MLB season begins tonight as the Yankees visit the Giants. I have a single-game parlay that includes Aaron Judge.

Matt Severance

Mar 25, 2026

5:00 am ET

•

5 min read

Imagn Images

In Major League Baseball, there have been just 54 occasions of a player hitting 50 home runs in a season, and no one has done it five times. Three-time AL MVP Aaron Judge has a shot to do to this season as the 2026 Major League Baseball campaign begins Wednesday night with Judge's New York Yankees at the San Francisco Giants in a Netflix special with an 8:05 ET first pitch. It's the first live MLB game on the streaming service.

It's no shock that the Yankees have had the most 50-homer seasons from a player with 12, and Judge reached the magic milestone on Sept. 24 last season vs. the White Sox, finishing with 54 bombs. He joined Babe Ruth (1920, 1921, 1927 and 1928), Mark McGwire (1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999) and Sammy Sosa (1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001) as the only players to reach 50 four times.

Although, Judge didn't even lead the AL as Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh topped the majors with 58, while Philadelphia's Kyle Schwarber led the NL with 56 and the Los Angeles Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani finished with 53. It marked only the third season with four players hitting 50 along with 1998 (Greg Vaughn, Ken Griffey Jr, McGwire and Sosa) and 2001 (Alex Rodriguez, Luis Gonzalez, Barry Bonds and Sosa).

Judge, the +215 favorite for another AL MVP, is given an Over/Under of 48.5 homers this season at FanDuel but is a -110 favorite at DraftKings to reach 50. For 60, Judge is +500. He is also the +350 favorite to lead the majors.

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Not that Judge needs any added motivation on Opening Night, but he's from nearby Sacramento and grew up a Giants fans. Judge pondered signing with the team when he was a free agent following the 2022 season but ended up returning to the Bronx.

In his career at Oracle Park, Judge is 6-for-10 with three homers, six RBI and five runs scored so he is clearly hyped up when playing near home. Judge has nine plate appearances vs. Giants ace Logan Webb, who starts tonight (they were teammates on Team USA in the WBC), and is 3-for-7 with a dinger and three RBI. No. 99 is +225 to go yard tonight and +125 for an RBI.

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The 29-year-old Webb makes his fifth consecutive Opening Day assignment for the Giants, which will mark the second-longest streak in franchise history behind Hall of Famer Juan Marichal (six), and is 0-1 with a 3.91 ERA in the first four. The righty Webb is an annual NL Cy Young candidate (+1700 this season) who finished fourth in the NL voting in 2025 after going 15-11 with a 3.22 ERA, 224 strikeouts (most in National League) and an MLB-high 207 innings.

Webb is the definition of a workhorse and might be a bit more stretched out than most Opening Day starters will be in that Webb not only pitched in three Cactus League games but started twice for the Americans in the World Baseball Classic and was terrific, allowing one run over 8.2 innings.

Right-handed hitters don't fare well off Webb, but lefties hit .286 off him with a .769 OPS in 2025, so expect a lot of lefties in the New York lineup – as many as six of them. Webb has three career starts vs. the Yankees and is 1-2 with a 5.50 ERA in 18.0 innings.

Tonight also marks the first regular-season professional game that Giants manager Tony Vitello has managed, as he was hired directly from the University of Tennessee in an MLB first. For what it's worth, Vitello led San Francisco to a to a 19-9 record in Cactus League play, second only to the Dodgers (20-8). Vitello is +1400 for NL Manager of the Year.

Outfielder and former Yankee Harrison Bader, signed in the offseason, has been dealing with some hamstring issues but should be ready to go. Bader played for Team Israel in the WBC and also appeared in nine spring games with San Francisco before the injury, slashing.316/.409/.579.

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Like the Giants, the Yankees were rather quiet in free agency. New York did go shopping for some big-name targets but generally lost out and re-signed its own guys like Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt and Trent Grisham. There's a ton of pressure on Aaron Boone to finally win a World Series, and he's a +500 second-favorite to be the first manager fired this season.

Lefty Max Fried makes his first Opening Day start with the Yankees but had made three previously with Atlanta and was 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA. Fried signed an eight-year, $218 million contract with the Yanks before the 2025 season a