2026 March Madness predictions: NCAA bracket expert picks, odds for Sweet 16 games on Thursday

Our experts give their opinion for Thursday's Sweet 16 games in the 2026 NCAA Tournament

Chip Patterson

Mar 25, 2026

8:41 pm ET

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6 min read

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While the opening rounds of the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket did not send a true Cinderella into the second weekend, strong performances from some of the best teams in the country have set up an absolutely stacked Sweet 16 slate that gets going on Thursday night. The West Region and South Region take center stage with their regional semifinals in San Jose and Houston, and while the round doesn't include any Cinderellas this first night of Sweet 16 action does feature both the last double-digit seed left and a No. 9 seed fresh off the rare 9-over-1 upset.

The first tipoff of the night will be Purdue and Texas in the West Regional semifinal, with the Boilermakers making their seventh Sweet 16 appearance in the last nine tournaments and Sean Miller looking to extend his first year with the Longhorns after going from the First Four to the Sweet 16. Texas rolled off three wins in five days traversing from Austin to Dayton to Portland and back, and at this point has shown none of the troubling signs on display as the team went 1-5 over their final six games heading into the tournament. Also in the early slate we've got what should be instant epic in the Nebraska-Iowa rivalry as a South Regional semifinal, with the Big Ten foes now playing with program history on the line for both sides. Iowa has not been in the Elite Eight since 1987 and Nebraska had not even won a single NCAA Tournament game prior to this year, so while Ben McCollum and Fred Hoiberg have already made some history there's even more on the line and a rival stands in the way.

And if that doesn't get you excited to get the bracket going again, the late night slate offerings might pack even more punch. The other West Regional semifinal, Arizona and Arkansas, is a clash of wildly entertaining offenses, with the Wildcats having a by-committee approach and the Razorbacks having the most explosive offensive player on the floor in freshman guard Darius Acuff. Both teams are capable of going for 90-plus points and very well could fulfill that after seeing the pace and production from each squad in the opening weekend. Meanwhile, Houston will be playing host to Illinois in Houston in a "neutral site" meeting of the teams listed fourth and sixth currently on the national title odds board. Both teams have the potential to cut down nets in Indianapolis, but only one will survive the night. The game features another two electric freshmen guards in Houston's Kingston Flemings and Illinois' Keaton Wagler, but also a fantastic chess match between the elite offense of the Fighting Illini and the elite defense of the Cougars.

March Madness 2026: Our experts reset their NCAA Tournament brackets with updated picks heading into Sweet 16

Cameron Salerno

With the stage set, let's get into some of our favorite picks of the night. If you prefer more straightforward against the spread or straight-up selections we hav included those as well, courtesy of the Expert Picks panel.

(2) Purdue vs. (11) Texas

7:10 p.m. on CBS | March Madness Live

Purdue not only won both its opening round games with blistering offensive efficiency, totaling a pair of double-digit final margins, but the Boilermakers were outright dominant and only trailed for 12 of 80 possible minutes between the victories against Queens and Miami. And after squeaking by NC State in the First Four, it is important to note that both of Texas' next two opponents (BYU and Gonzaga) were missing one of their top three players due to injury. As an 11-seed, there is certainly some juice once you make it to the second weekend, but Texas is no Cinderella. This is a talented group that nearly let the season slide off the rails with six wins in the final seven games leading into the NCAA Tournament. So if there's any regression in that direction, Purdue might be able to turn this into a non-competitive game. Pick: Purdue -6.5

Gary Parrish

Matt Norlander

Chip Patterson

David Cobb

Cameron Salerno

Isaac Trotter

PUR -6.5

TEXAS PUR PUR TEXAS PURS/U

TEXAS PUR PUR PUR PUR

(4) Nebraska vs. (9) Iowa

7:30 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live

It's a rubber match in a great corn-fueled rivalry with the ultimate stakes, meaning one team will be getting a chance to play for the Final Four on Saturday while the other will begin counting down the days to its revenge opportunity in 2026-27 Big Ten play. Iowa won the first game 57-52 at home, while Nebraska won 84-75 in overtime in Lincoln. Both games were classics, even if they had totally different styles. The key in this one will be whether Iowa can limit the kind of turnovers that Nebraska's defense can create, and whether Nebraska's offense can win on the boards when the three-pointers aren't falling