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For communist Cuba, it’s the beginning of the end

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by Arturo McFields, opinion contributor - 05/20/26 8:30 AM ET

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by Arturo McFields, opinion contributor - 05/20/26 8:30 AM ET

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Cuba’s President Miguel Diaz-Canel (R), Colonel Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro (C), grandson of former President Raul Castro, and Armed Forces Minister General Alvaro Lopez Miera attend the funeral of the 32 Cuban soldiers killed during the US incursion in Venezuela at Colon cemetery in Havana on January 16, 2026. (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE / AFP via Getty Images)

The U.S. has resolved to put an end to Cuba’s communist dictatorship. The so-called “friendly takeover” driven by sanctions, economic pressure or negotiations appears to have run its course. The Trump administration may now be considering other options — similar, though not identical to, those implemented against Nicolás Maduro.

Much as it did in Venezuela, the U.S. is preparing an indictment against Raul Castro for his involvement in downing two aircraft flown by the Miami-based humanitarian organization Brothers to the Rescue in 1996. This indictment is not merely symbolic, nor is it a simple political gesture. Rather, it opens the door to a wide range of options, including Castro’s extraction to face justice in U.S. courts.

Acting National Security Advisor and Secretary of State Marco Rubio has ruled out the possibility that Cuba could implement economic changes without first undergoing a regime change.

“We’ll give them a chance. But I don’t think it’s going to happen,” said Rubio. “I don’t think we are going to be able to change the trajectory of Cuba as long as these people are in charge in that regime.”

During a hearing in the U.S. Congress, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said he believes Cuba poses a threat to U.S. national security. But Hegseth’s comments are not isolated. During a visit to Havana, CIA Director John Ratcliffe warned officials that Cuba “can no longer be a safe haven for adversaries” of the U.S.

The arrival of the CIA’s top chief represents one of the latest attempts to negotiate a peaceful path with the regime. But the Castro family refuses to make significant changes regarding political and economic matters.

Contrary to expectations, the island’s regime has not responded well to the pressure. Instead, it has escalated repression, espionage and arrests of civilians — actions that now total 1,260 individuals, including 35 minors.

In response to Cuba’s intransigence, the Department of the Treasury announced new sanctions this Monday against spies, generals and high-ranking officials of the regime. The sanctions target National Assembly President Esteban Lazo, Minister of Justice Rosabel Gamon Verde, Minister of Energy Vicente de la O Levy, the general directorate of Intelligence, three generals and a member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party.

Rubio noted that the Trump administration continues to take decisive action to protect U.S. national security, deprive Cuba’s communist regime and military of access to illicit assets and hold accountable “many of whom are responsible for or have been involved in repressing the Cuban people.”

Just like Maduro before his final hours, the Cuban dictatorship wants to persuade the U.S. that they are willing to fight till the end, that it will be another Vietnam, and that there would be a bloodbath if they dare take military action on the island.

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel said the nation “already endures a multidimensional aggression by the United States,” and that although the U.S. “does indeed possess the absolute and legitimate right to defend itself,” it “cannot be wielded, either logically or honestly, as an excuse for imposing war on the noble Cuban people.”

Havana is also exhausting its final resources to bolster a narrative of resistance suggesting that the U.S. would pay a price for confronting the longest-standing tyranny in the Americas. Axios reports that Havana possesses 300 military drones and is currently discussing plans to attack Guantanamo Bay, U.S. military vessels and potentially Key West, Florida.

The U.S. continues to ratchet up the pressure on Cuba, and the likelihood of a brief, decisive military operation is growing steadily. This would not be another Bay of Pigs, but rather an updated version of Absolute Resolve, featuring symbolic objectives such as the destruction of the regime’s primary spy bases or the potential extraction of one or two high-ranking officials of significant stature.

May 20, Cuban Independence Day, could mark the beginning of Cuba’s second independence — this time,