Administration

Iran war may give China, Xi, some leverage on Trump at Beijing summit

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by Laura Kelly - 05/11/26 6:00 AM ET

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by Laura Kelly - 05/11/26 6:00 AM ET

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The U.S. war against Iran threatens to be a dark cloud following President Trump to his high-stakes meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week.

Trump is expected to meet with Xi on Thursday and Friday in a trip postponed because of the war from early April. This time, Trump plans to travel to Beijing, even as the progress on a deal with Tehran appears to unravel.

Experts watching the meeting closely say both sides want it to go forward.

“The priority at this point is having the summit take place, having the two of them meet face-to-face,” said Alison Szalwinski, vice president at the Asia Group. “And ensuring that U.S.-China relations are on stable footing. That’s the priority, even as Iran continues to loom.”

Trump and Xi, who most recently met face-to-face in Busan, South Korea, in October, are expected to discuss Beijing’s focus on continued access to U.S. technology and Trump’s pursuit of China’s purchase of American products, such as Boeing jets. China’s role in America’s fentanyl crisis, artificial intelligence and China’s claim to Taiwan are just some of the other major issues of the summit.

Some say the war with Iran, which has led to high gas prices in the U.S. and around the world, leaves Trump at a disadvantage with Xi at the summit.

“The idea of an American president going to a summit with our foremost competitor at a time where he has just experienced, I think, the most catastrophic strategic debacle in recent memory, is going to be a striking moment,” said Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. “From a U.S. perspective, this absolutely changes the sense of our ascendence at this point in time.”

Trump and the U.S. remain bogged down in Iran, which has prevented vessels from moving through the Strait of Hormuz, entangling 20 percent of the world’s oil supply in the process.

While the U.S. has battered Iran militarily, it has been unable to open the strait. Trump has repeatedly signaled a desire to end the fighting in recent weeks.

While China is the top importer of Iranian oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz, Beijing has built up large storage reserves of oil and gas to offset the shortages.

Xi has so far balked at requests from Trump and his top officials to join efforts to reopen the strait. Beijing has even told its domestic oil refineries to ignore U.S. sanctions levied against them for processing Iranian crude. The Chinese government also threatened countermeasures on businesses or individuals that complied with the U.S. sanctions.

China is likely pleased to see the U.S. expend large numbers of munitions in the Persian Gulf that otherwise could have been used to help defend Taiwan against an invasion, and it is likely closely studying U.S. military actions for its own purposes, said Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia engagement at Defense Priorities, a think tank in Washington, D.C.

“On the other hand, of course China, as the premier global trading power, needs these straits open. Even if there’s tremendous hurt in Southeast Asia from this war, that is going to damage the Chinese economy,” he said on a panel discussion.

China has leverage with Iran but is exercising it selectively.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing on Thursday. China’s top diplomat emphasized Beijing’s support for diplomatic talks over the resumption of military conflict.

“China believes that a comprehensive ceasefire is of utmost urgency, that resuming hostilities is even less acceptable, and that adhering to negotiations is particularly important,” China’s Foreign Ministry said in a readout of the meeting.

Szalwinski, from the Asia Group, called this “classic Chinese restraint.”

“Beijing has nudged Iran towards de-escalation, looking at ceasefire flexibility, but it’s a different picture than trying to manage the conflict and to end it,” she said.

“It’s stepping in just enough to protect its own interest, especially as that relates to energy flows and regional stability is very important, without owning the problem.”

U.S. officials have alternated between appealing to China’s self-interest — Secretary of State Marco Rubio said it’s in Beijing’s interest to secure the freedom of transit through the strait — to more blunt criticism.

“Iran is the largest state sponsor of terrorism, and China has been buying 90 percent of their energy, so they are funding the largest state sponsor of terrorism,” Treasury Secret