Technology

Prediction markets ramp up DC messaging amid lawmaker pushback

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by Julia Shapero - 04/10/26 6:00 AM ET

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by Julia Shapero - 04/10/26 6:00 AM ET

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Prediction markets are making their presence known in Washington with eye-catching advertising and events, as the platforms face growing criticism from lawmakers concerned about insider trading and markets linked to war and death.

Kalshi launched an ad campaign in D.C. last week, with messages displayed in Metro cars, at bus stops and on the sides of buildings to counter the concerns that have plagued the site in recent months.

In bold black lettering on the company’s signature green background, the ads declare that Kalshi bans insider trading, doesn’t allow for death markets and operates under U.S. law.

Meanwhile, Polymarket drew online hype with a D.C. pop-up bar in late March called “The Situation Room.”

The weekend-long event, which was hampered by early technical glitches, sought to bring the prediction market experience to life with dozens of televisions displaying news feeds, flight radars and Polymarket odds — an occasion that the company’s chief legal officer Neal Kumar described as its “coming out party in D.C.”

But as the companies ramp up their messaging efforts in the nation’s capital, it’s unclear whether they are breaking through to policymakers, particularly as new controversies continue to draw scrutiny on their policies and practices.

Cayce Myers, a public relations professor at Virginia Tech, suggested the Kalshi ad campaign and Polymarket pop-up represent a “normalization effort” by the prediction markets.

“Right now, it’s very opaque in some people’s minds, rife with a lot of regulatory issues or potential issues that need to be regulated,” he told The Hill.

Prediction markets allow individuals to place wagers on the outcomes of certain events, ranging from sports to politics to the economy. The platforms have grown rapidly in recent years, but not without criticism.

This scrutiny has ratcheted up over the past three months, as several well-timed bets on the Trump administration’s ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and airstrikes on Iran raised questions about insider trading.

Lawmakers have also voiced concerns about markets that “incentivize physical injury or death,” pointing to wagers on whether the Artemis II spaceship would explode or when Russian forces would take a Ukrainian city.

Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), who has banned his staff from trading on prediction markets, tore into Polymarket on Friday for initially accepting bets on the date a U.S. pilot shot down over Iran would be found.

The platform quickly took down the market, saying it did not meet the company’s standards and emphasizing it was investigating “how this slipped through our internal safeguards.”

These concerns have prompted a spate of bills, primarily from Democratic lawmakers, seeking to bar insider trading and death markets. Some have gone further, aiming to block wagers on elections, government or military actions and sports.

A separate fight brewing in Washington is who should be in charge of regulating prediction markets — states or the federal government. The issue has drawn in Republicans on either side of the debate, with two opposing coalitions each touting prominent GOP figures in their camp.

In the face of pushback, both Kalshi and Polymarket announced efforts to strengthen their insider trading restrictions in late March.

Kalshi said it was launching “new technological guardrails” to preemptively block politicians, athletes and other relevant people from trading in certain markets. Polymarket unveiled “updated market integrity rules” clarifying that it prohibits trading on stolen confidential information and illegal tips or by those who can influence the outcome.

But lawmakers have remained skeptical, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) immediately dismissing such efforts as “absolutely not enough.”

Kalshi, which argues that it already implements many of the restrictions sought by lawmakers, is aiming to distinguish the platform from competitors with its ad campaign, spokesperson Elisabeth Diana told The Hill.

“Not all prediction markets are the same, and there are very key distinctions that we want people to be aware of, especially in D.C.,” Diana said. “And so, we decided to run this campaign to talk about the differences.”

While most ad campaigns are focused on attracting customers, Myers noted that the Kalshi push appears to be centered on “influencing perceptions amongst influential people,” such as lawmakers and journalists.

“Whether or not that’s going to be effective remains to be seen in terms of the regulatory impact and also public perception, because what I’ve seen is a lot of criticism coming back on them because of the campaigns themselves,” Myers said. “And so, it may have the opposite effect, just depending on the