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Massie trails Trump-backed Gallrein in Kentucky House GOP primary: Poll

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by Max Rego - 05/14/26 12:19 PM ET

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by Max Rego - 05/14/26 12:19 PM ET

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A new poll from Quantus Insights has Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) trailing challenger Ed Gallrein, just days before the May 19 Republican primary in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District.

The survey, conducted Monday and Tuesday, found that 48.3 percent of 908 respondents backed Gallrein, whom President Trump endorsed last year amid a feud with Massie, while 43.1 percent backed the incumbent. More than 8 percent of respondents were undecided.

Among 69 respondents who were still undecided, Gallrein received support from 52.2 percent of them and Massie received the backing of 20.3 percent of them. More than 27 percent of those 69 respondents still said they were undecided, even when asked if they were leaning toward a particular candidate.

Massie, a libertarian, has represented the Bluegrass State’s 4th District since 2012 — making him the third-longest-tenured member of Kentucky’s House delegation, behind only Republican Reps. Hal Rogers and Brett Guthrie.

But after Massie broke with Trump on a variety of issues last year, including the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and the administration’s handling of files related to the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, the president pulled his support of Massie and backed Gallrein — a retired U.S. Navy SEAL who lost to state Sen. Aaron Reed (R) in the 2024 GOP primary for Kentucky’s 7th Senatorial District.

Rep. Andy Barr (Ky.), who is running for the Republican nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), also endorsed Gallrein over Massie in February.

On the campaign trail, Gallrein has touted his experience in the military and aligned himself closely with the president. In an ad he shared to social media on Tuesday, the three-time Bronze Star recipient said he is “running to stand with President Trump and put America First.”

Massie, on the other hand, has derided Gallrein as “woke Eddie” and frequently highlights his own ties to Kentucky.

“Our nation and Kentucky have enormous challenges and problems,” the incumbent congressman said in an ad he shared to social media on Monday. “But after every visit back home to Kentucky, and talking with you and holding my grandchildren, I’m more renewed than ever to keep fighting.”

As of the end of April, the campaigns of Massie and Gallrein had received more than $5.5 million and $3.1 million, respectively, in contributions this cycle, according to the Federal Election Commission.

Both campaigns have already spent the majority of those funds, as they each had less than $609,000 on hand as of the end of April.

The Quantus Insights poll found that 47.5 percent of men backed Massie, while 44.5 percent backed Gallrein and 8.5 percent were undecided. Gallrein boasts a nearly 14-point edge among women, though, with 52.2 percent support to Massie’s 38.6 percent.

The survey was conducted over text with 908 individuals. It has a margin of error of 3.3 points, and an effective sample size of 903 after weighting.

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