Manchester City vs. Arsenal: Will past meetings define Sunday's Premier League clash of title contenders?

The two sides are once again vying for the title, and while the Gunners have struggled recently, a win on Sunday could come close to ending the race

James Benge

Apr 18, 2026

10:06 am ET

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14 min read

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As the Premier League's two best sides ready themselves for Sunday's potentially pivotal battle for English supremacy, we know what's going to happen, right? We've seen it all play out before, as recently as four weeks ago. Manchester City are going to reassert their dizzying superiority over Arsenal once more and with it they will wrestle control of the title race from England's nearly rans.

And yet... Pep Guardiola was not far from the truth when he asked last week if there was "even one bet" for Manchester City to beat Arsenal in the EFL Cup Final. His side, slipping out of the title race after draws with Nottingham Forest and West Ham, were underdogs and that was how he liked it. Now, City are on the hunt.

According to the bookmakers, City are strong favorites to win at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday. Were they to do so, they would be three points behind the Premier League leaders with a game in hand. Their fate would be in their hands, as it would Arsenal, given that all that would separate these two would be goal difference if they won their remaining games.

The external mood -- and if you listen to Arsenal players it is just that -- seems to have shifted radically. The question is if this is an overcorrection. Have Arsenal become that bad? Are City that vastly improved? Did the Carabao Cup capture a moment in time or reflect a wider trend?

Even Guardiola seems to know it's a little bit more of the latter. "I know Mikel. They are going to adjust something and we have to prepare to do it," he said. "In the end, it is more simple. It is how your players individually win the me against you and how they are able to do it."

What went wrong at Wembley

Few would deny that a few weeks ago, it was City's players who won the "me against you," though even that comes with some caveats. At halftime it was the Gunners who had had the better of the shot count, five to two, and were established as the likely favorites to win an attritional contest. The warning signs were already there for what would be their downfall, but Arsenal's issues would have to coalesce around City reaching a height that stunned even Guardiola.

The most profound of those struggles was Arsenal's inability to manipulate the defensive shape of their opponents. Without the ball City set up in a 4-2-4 out of which a forward may burst, but in general, they were more than happy to cede possession to the center backs and, in particular, Kepa Arrizabalaga and challenge them to break through the sky blue wall.

City's four man press blocks Kepa's passes into Arsenal's two midfielders

EFL

Though it was hardly the only issue Arteta faced, the base problem from which so many others flowed was this: City let them have the ball in their own third and Arsenal could not progress it to anywhere where they could threaten. The 28 progressive passes they completed were the third lowest in any game this season, and in the other two -- a league win at Brighton and the second leg of the EFL Cup semifinal -- they had advantages to hunker down and protect from early on. This time Arsenal could not go around or through, and going long, well, more on that in a moment.

There are tactical adjustments that Arsenal could have made then and could make on Sunday. Arsenal congested the extreme central areas too heavily at Wembley. Here, Leandro Trossard's positioning is all wrong; even if Kepa Arrizabalaga and co. find a way through the first line, Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi aren't going to have an option that stretches the pitch, but one that conjests the middle. Rice's most reliable out ball was to Bukayo Saka holding width on the right, but he lacked the fitness to beat a man. No one else was really standing in the places where City couldn't get to, which should be numerous when they line up in an aggressive 4-2-4.

Another option, which is admittedly more high-risk, is to break the City defensive shape by carrying rather than passing. This is particularly the case for someone like William Saliba, who averages nearly seven progressive carries per 90 this season. In the EFL Cup Final he completed just three. Is it a risk to charge at a figure as hulking as Erling Haaland? Certainly, but rarely will the reward be quite as significant as it would be for a win on Sunday.

Ultimately, though, a great deal of the issues Arsenal had with getting through City were of personnel. Barring a dramatic late injury, David Raya will start in goal ahead of Kepa, affording his team not just a high-grade shot stopper and sweeper but a ball-player who can break the lines with more accuracy than most.

That is a lock, but three injury boosts w