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Becerra, Steyer jostle for front-runner status in ‘fluid’ California governor’s race

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by Julia Mueller - 04/25/26 12:00 PM ET

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by Julia Mueller - 04/25/26 12:00 PM ET

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Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and billionaire Tom Steyer are jostling for Democratic front-runner status in the primary race for governor of California after former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) dropped out amid sexual assault allegations.

The candidates were among four Democrats who faced off in a debate this week, along with two Republicans. None of the contenders has taken a significant lead in polls, but political strategists say Steyer and Becerra have seen the biggest post-Swalwell bump.

Steyer won the backing of the powerful California Teachers Association, which previously endorsed Swalwell, and the support of Betty Yee, who suspended her bid last week and further winnowed the race.

Becerra notched key endorsements from state lawmakers and saw his prospects rise sharply in polling after Swalwell’s exit.

With about a month until the Golden State’s nonpartisan primary, more debates and potential big-name endorsements loom as Democrats ramp up calls to coalesce support and avoid the possibility of two Republicans advancing from the unique, top-two contest.

“The race is beginning to crystallize with those two at the top,” said David McCuan, a Sonoma State University politics professor. “I think it’s Becerra and Steyer. The Becerra bump is real.”

This past week’s debate was the first since Swalwell dropped out amid allegations of sexual misconduct and assault from five women, which he has denied. He’d been leading other Democrats in some recent polling, and his exit widened the path for other Democrats, particularly Becerra, a fellow moderate.

In the latest Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey, taken just after Swalwell’s exit and ahead of the debate, Republican Steve Hilton was leading the field with 17 percent, followed by rival GOP contender Chad Bianco and Steyer, tied at 14 percent each. Former Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.), who had been the front-runner last year before hitting snags, tied with Becerra at 10 percent each.

Becerra, who had been stuck in single digits before Swalwell’s exit, is “now the Democratic frontrunner, or at least a co-frontrunner” with Steyer, said California Democratic strategist Garry South.

The pair were tied at 13 percent each in polling shared by the California Democratic Party before the debate, leading fellow Democrats but trailing the two top Republicans. That poll marked a 9-point jump for Becerra since Democrats’ early April survey with Swalwell in the mix, and a 2-point bump for Steyer.

“I think the race is very fluid, very fluid. But at the moment, I think it is Becerra and Steyer for sure,” longtime California Republican strategist Mike Madrid said of the Democratic field.

Meanwhile, Democratic leadership is warning that the party’s still-crowded field opens up a “low” but “real” risk that two Republicans nab the top two spots in the June 2 primary, which would block Democrats from advancing a candidate in the blue stronghold.

“If you’re in single digits with two weeks to go, I would think you would fall in the category to give serious consideration to stepping back at this point in time,” California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks told ABC10, when asked if he’d call on specific candidates to drop out. He pointed to the party’s recent polling showing two Republicans in the lead.

One candidate locked in single digits, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, reportedly told the Latino Media Collaborative on Tuesday that there’s still a lane for his campaign, expressing hope that “things are going to break open” in the coming weeks.

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (D) climbed to 5 percent in the Emerson poll after Swalwell’s exit, narrowly qualifying for the debate stage, and saw some momentum in betting odds after the event.

Porter, seen as an early front-runner, was dragged down by backlash around her treatment of a staffer and a journalist, but more than two dozen former staffers signed a support letter this month.

While Democrats scramble to find their front-runner, Hilton has started to coalesce GOP support with the help of an endorsement from President Trump.

“All things continuing in that direction, Democrats shouldn’t be as worried about the top two Rep-on-Rep concern, because Hilton should pull away, and if Hilton’s at 23 and Bianco’s at nine, then Democrats, there’s going to be two or three Democrats that are going to get more than him. The fear kind of disappears if that happens,” California Democratic data expert Paul Mitchell said.