Free MLB home run picks May 1: Braves' Ozzie Albies facing ideal pitcher in thin air at Coors Field on Friday

SportsLine expert Matt Severance shares his best MLB home run props picks for games on Friday, May 1

Matt Severance

May 1, 2026

5:40 pm ET

•

3 min read

While the first round of the 2026 NBA and NHL Playoffs could largely be wrapped up on Friday, May 1, the 2026 MLB season has just started. Teams are still attempting to find their footing but some early contenders have gotten off to strong starts, like the Atlanta Braves and New York Yankees. There are 15 games on the baseball schedule for Friday and that means plenty of opportunities for those interested in MLB betting, particularly with home run prop bets.

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Over the past four MLB seasons, I'm up $1,681 on my MLB picks. You can find more of my picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.

Last Friday, my HR plays were the Dodgers' Kyle Tucker and the Rangers' Brandon Nimmo. Tucker as a non-factor against his former team, going 0-for-3 with a walk. Nimmo also was a non-factor at 0-for-4 with a strikeout against the Athletics.

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Top Friday MLB home run picks

- Ozzie Albies, Braves (+469, DraftKings)

- Joc Pederson, Rangers (+520, FanDuel)

Ozzie Albies, Braves (+469, DraftKings)

Coors Field in Denver hasn't been THAT homer-friendly yet, but the weather has been a bit weird in Denver so far and no Colorado batter is a mega-threat to go yard. But I can't ignore the bounce-back season that Braves three-time All-Star shortstop Albies, a switch-hitter, is having nor his career splits against expected Rockies starting pitcher Jose Quintana.

Atlanta cratered last year in large part due to injuries. Albies was a rare guy to stay healthy but regressed to a .240 average with 16 homers and a .365 slugging percentage. The 2026 Albies looks like the 2023 guy who hit .280 with a career-high 33 homers and .849 OPS as he's batting .323 with seven dingers and a .540 slugging. He's part of the reason why Atlanta has had such a nice turnaround.

Left-handed pitchers can last forever in the majors, and that's the 37-year-old Quintana as he now basically bounces from team-to-team to stay in the Show. Quintana was still pretty effective in 2025 with Milwaukee but wasn't offered a contract to return and signed a one-year deal with the Rockies, who as we all know are desperate for anyone to eat some innings. The Colombian is 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA and only nine strikeouts in 18.1 innings with four homers allowed.

The ball is going to be put in play against Quintana, and Albies is 9-for-19 with three homers and two doubles career off him -- good for a 1.553 OPS. Against lefties overall in 2026, Albies has a 1.024 OPS compared to .827 against righties.

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Joc Pederson, Rangers (+520, FanDuel)

Sometimes, you just have to face the right pitcher to get out of a long slump and perhaps that will be the case for Pederson on Friday in Detroit. The 34-year-old Pederson is one of your typical modern-day one trick ponies in that all he can do is homer and generally only against a certain type of pitcher.

And that's one risk recommending Pederson for any home run pick in that the lefty only starts against right-handers. He certainly should tonight with the Tigers starting Jack Flaherty, but in the later innings if Pederson is up in a danger spot then Detroit manager A.J. Hinch surely brings in a lefty and then Pederson is pinch-hit for. Don't believe me? Pederson has two official at-bats against a lefty this year and is 0-for-2 with a strikeout.

Not that Pederson is killing righties at .232 with two homers and a .333 slugging. But he is 7-for-21 with three homers and a double career off Flaherty, good for a .773 slugging. Flaherty is struggling at the moment. He hasn't lasted more than 3.1 innings in his past two starts and allowed three bombs last time out in Cincinnati. Flaherty's control is gone as he has walked 22 guys in 25.1 innings. The warm weather hasn't really reached Detroit yet but it's hard to ignore the splits.

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