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Democrats worry they may be taking the wrong lesson from recent wins

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by Amie Parnes - 04/24/26 6:00 AM ET

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by Amie Parnes - 04/24/26 6:00 AM ET

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Democrats are winning races — and even redistricting battles — but some in the party worry they’re not yet winning the argument.

Recent victories —from a gubernatorial win in New Jersey to a favorable redistricting outcome this week in Virginia, along with a string of special election overperformances — have given Democrats reason for confidence.

Heading into the midterms later this year, they say they’re on solid footing to win the House, and there’s newfound optimism that they could also flip the Senate — something that appeared insurmountable just weeks ago.

But the success has also prompted a quieter concern inside the party: that Democrats are misreading what those wins actually signal.

In interviews with The Hill, Democrats warned that some in their party may be mistaking backlash against President Trump for support of their policies and rhetoric.

“Highlighting Trump’s failures will be enough to make Democrats competitive in 2026, but it is not enough to win back real power in 2028,” said Democratic strategist Joel Payne. “Democrats who are actually clear-eyed understand this.

“There has to be a real plan that individual candidates, and the party as a whole, represents that is separate from a Donald Trump contrast for a sustainable, long-term success,” Payne added.

Democratic strategist Basil Smikle agreed, adding that Democrats “will need to actually offer clear policy alternatives going forward.”

“They have to build a world for voters to choose,” Smikle added.

Democrats quietly acknowledge that Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran has also helped their party because it has driven up gas and food prices. They are quick to remind voters of Trump’s pledge when he was campaigning for president in 2024 to slash gas prices and also end “forever wars.”

They say recent polling reflects that shift, with Trump’s approval ratings taking a hit, particularly on his handling of the economy.

An Associated Press-NORC poll released this week, for example, found the president’s approval rating on the economy fell sharply in April to 30 percent, down 8 points from March. Trump’s overall job performance has also declined in recent weeks, with 33 percent of adults approving, down from 38 percent, from the same poll in March.

That has given Democrats reason for optimism — especially compared with the party’s bleak mood in the months following the 2024 election, when they were mourning not just Trump’s victory over former Vice President Kamala Harris but also the loss of both chambers of Congress.

The outlook has improved, beginning with gubernatorial wins in New Jersey and Virginia and followed by gains in local races — including late last year in the Miami mayoral contest, where a Democrat won for the first time in three decades.

This week’s redistricting victory in Virginia only added to that momentum, as Democrats prepare for the summer stretch ahead of the midterms.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom — who is leading in some early polls of potential 2028 Democratic contenders — seized on the moment, rallying Democrats in a post on his social media accounts.

“What a night in Virginia. We keep saying it. When we fight fire with fire, we win,” said Newsom, who also led a successful redistricting battle in his own state last fall. “And we are winning, all across the United States — in state houses and courthouses and now in the court of public opinion.”

“But what is at stake is putting a stake in the heart of the Trump administration by taking back the House of Representatives and taking back the United States Senate,” Newsom added. “MAGA, dare I say they’re losing at their own game. They’re on the defense and they’re scared.”

John Morgan, a longtime Democratic mega-donor and injury lawyer who has frequently expressed frustration about Democrats — and has even floated creating a third party in Florida — said Democrats should do nothing.

“When the opposition is catching themselves on fire in the public square, the best advice is not to get close to the fire, lest you catch yourself on fire,” Morgan said. “Say nothing. Do nothing. Shut the f— up.”

For 2028, Morgan said, the “plan and pitch will be simple: No more chaos. No more cruelty. More civility.”

“It’s not so much about what they are for,” he said. “It’s what they are against.”

But some Democrats say that may not be the best strategy if they want to attract more voters— b