Mets vs. Yankees prediction: Four things to know about season's first Subway Series

The desperate Mets are coming off a sweep of the Tigers, while the scuffling Yankees have lost six of their last eight

Mike Axisa

May 15, 2026

9:40 am ET

•

8 min read

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This weekend at Citi Field, the New York Mets will host the crosstown rival New York Yankees in the first leg of the 2026 Subway Series. The two teams will play three games in Queens this weekend, then meet for three games in the Bronx in September. This is MLB's second annual rivalry weekend, which will feature this series and 11 others between interleague/geographic rivals.

The two New York teams enter the weekend in very, very different places in the standings.

Overall MLB standings

1. Braves: 30-14

2. Rays: 28-14 (1 GB)

3. Cubs: 28-16 (2 GB)

4. Yankees: 27-17 (3 GB)

...

27. Mets: 18-25 (11 ½ GB)

28. Rockies: 17-27 (13)

29. Astros: 17-28 (13 ½ GB)

30. Angels: 16-28 (14 GB)

The current standings ruin what could've been a fun narrative this weekend -- "the Mets (wholesale changes) and Yankees (run it back) show two very different offseason approaches can both work" -- but it's a long season, and there's still time for that to come true. For now, though, the Yankees are again one of the league's best teams. The Mets have disappointed.

"I really don't understand it," Yankees captain Aaron Judge said about the Mets' struggles (via The Athletic). "They've got a great manager with (Carlos Mendoza) over there. They've got a great lineup. A great pitching staff. It's baseball. You can't really judge a team off of six weeks of the season. If you did that, you could take six weeks that we're struggling and say we're the worst team out there. They've got a good ball club over there."

Here are the details for this week's three-game Subway Series in Queens. The games on Saturday and Sunday can be streamed on fubo (Try for free).

DateStart timeStarting pitchersTVFri., May 15

7:15 p.m. ET

RHP Cam Schlittler (5-1, 1.35) vs. RHP Clay Holmes (4-3, 1.86)

Apple TV

Sat., May 16

7:15 p.m. ET

LHP Carlos Rodón (0-0, 6.23) vs. TBA

Fox

Sun., May 17

1:40 p.m. ET

LHP Ryan Weathers (2-2, 3.00) vs. RHP Freddy Peralta (3-3, 3.10)

SNY, YES

Saturday lines up to be lefty David Peterson's spot, though the Mets have paired him with an opener the last few times out, hence the TBA. The Yankees have a lefty-heavy top of the lineup with Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, and Ben Rice surrounding Judge in the 1-2-3-4 spots. It might be worth just starting Peterson and getting those left-on-left matchups in the first inning. We'll see.

Here is what you need to know heading into the latest edition of the Subway Series at Citi Field, plus a prediction, because why not?

1. Expect Soto to play

Juan Soto

NYM • LF • #22

BA0.263

R11

HR4

RBI11

SB1

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Yankee-turned-Met Juan Soto exited Wednesday's game a few innings after fouling a pitch into his ankle, and losing Soto is pretty much the last thing the Mets need right now. X-rays showed no fracture, fortunately, and although the Mets initially said Soto is day-to-day, he was in the lineup Thursday afternoon at DH. It takes a lot to keep that man out of the lineup.

"I was concerned as soon as he got hit, because it got him pretty good there," Mendoza said after Wednesday's game (via MLB.com). "We went out there and you could tell that he was in pain. That second at-bat didn't look right. Then when I saw the trainer come my way, I knew something was up ... I'm glad that we got good news."

Playing Thursday strongly indicates Soto will be in the lineup against the Yankees this weekend. I mean, I'm pretty sure he would play on crutches before missing the Subway Series. If he's limited to DH, he's limited to DH. It's not like he's in the lineup for his left field defense anyway. Soto may be sore after taking that pitch to the ankle, but it's hard to see him not playing this weekend.

The Mets have averaged only 3.74 runs per game this year, one of the lowest marks in baseball, and a big reason is their inability to handle premium velocity. Going into Thursday, the Mets ranked 28th in batting average (.208) and 30th in slugging percentage (.269) against pitches at 95 mph or better. Every other team was slugging at least .300 against 95-plus mph heat.

Soto is, by a mile, New York's best hitter against premium velocity, and the Mets will definitely need him against Schlittler and Weathers this weekend. They're two of the hardest throwers in the sport. Schlittler uses his three fastballs (four-seamer, sinker, cutter) a combined 91% of the time, and they're all mid-to-upper-90s. He's a particularly bad matchup for the Mets even with Soto.

In his last 10 games, Soto has gone 6 for 29 (.207) with two homers, so he's in a little slump right now in addition to probably being sore from that foul ball. A hitter this talented is always one at-bat away from snapping out of it and going on a ho