2026 PGA Championship picks, odds: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm among nine who can catch leader Alex Smalley

Only two times since 2000 has the final pairing at the PGA Championship consisted of players without a PGA Tour win

Patrick McDonald

May 16, 2026

8:23 pm ET

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8 min read

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NEWTOWN SQUARE, Pa. -- If it felt like one big game of hot potato on Saturday at the 2026 PGA Championship, that's because it was exactly that. Moving Day consisted of movement from every corner of Aronimink Golf Course, but ultimately, not where it mattered most as 36-hole leader Alex Smalley went from sharing the advantage to owning it outright after an impressive 2-under 68 moved him to 6 under for the the championship and two strokes clear of Ludvig Åberg, Matti Schmid, Nick Taylor, Aaron Rai and Jon Rahm, not to mention a whole lot of other players not far behind.

'I obviously dreamed of this as a kid, and it's funny, it's the Wanamaker Trophy, and when I was in college, I stayed in the Wanamaker dorm for three years," Smalley said. "So, my parents and I have been joking that maybe this would be a tournament that I would win just because of that kind of fact. That's just kind of something that we've joked about even before I made it out here.

"It would be pretty cool to actually pull it out tomorrow."

The lead bounced around with the roars from the Philadelphia faithful. Each new echo brought news that a birdie was made, while every groan sent a message that an opportunity was missed. Leaderboard watching did players no favors, as a glance up at the bright white lights would read one name in one moment and another just mere seconds later.

In total, 13 different players held the lead at one point on Saturday. It ranged from Chris Kirk, who had an opportunity to shoot 62 before a four-putt double bogey on the last, to Rory McIlroy, who has climbed back from the depths of despair with rounds of 67-66 his last two days.

McIlroy's march back to the first page of the leaderboard started from four strokes on the other side of par. If he were to summit the long walk up the 18th hole at this Donald Ross design, he would be the first since Jordan Spieth in 2015 to take the season slam into the third major championship of the year. Already having six major championships and the career grand slam makes him eternal already, but add another, and the legend will only grow.

"If I had to play the last three holes at 1 under instead of 1 over, I would have got to 5 [under]," McIlroy said. "And I sort of thought if I could go out today and get to that, it would make the leaders shoot under par to either be with me or ahead of me. So, I didn't get there. I made, I guess, a couple of mistakes the last three holes. I feel like I still did enough to think I have a chance going into tomorrow."

Someone hoping to follow in McIlroy's career grand slam footsteps is Rahm, who was one of those 13 players to top the leaderboard in Round 3. He strutted up the last with the lead in hand before a three-putt from 31 feet saw him fall out of the logjam at the top. If the Spaniard ultimately reigns supreme, it would make three straight major championships -- Spieth this week, Scottie Scheffler at the U.S. Open and Rahm at The Open -- where the grand slam is in play.

Speaking of Scheffler … is he too far back? The deficit reads five after Smalley's clutch birdie on the 18th hole late Saturday evening gave the smooth-swinging right-hander even more space to operate. While the margin is crucial for Scheffler, the number of players in between him and the top is equally important, as he sits in a tie for 23rd at 1 under.

A player familiar with winning this tournament and doing so with a birdie on the last, Xander Schauffele remains firmly in this conversation as he matched McIlroy's 66 earlier in the day to stand alongside the Masters champion at 3 under. He gains confidence by the swing, and he understands that, although he may have a late tee time, that may not mean he will be the last man standing.

"Just the way the course plays," Schauffele said. "I mean, someone early goes and shoots something 6, 7 under, they might just have a chance to win the whole thing, depending on how windy it gets out there."

Those are just a handful of players who could possibly win the PGA Championship on Sunday. There are a handful more, and even that may not be doing it justice. Regardless, it's time to trim down the list, and although 54 holes may not have brought a definitive answer, these next 18 most certainly will.

Who can catch the leader and win the Wanamaker?

Odds via DraftKings

T2. Jon Rahm (-4)

Rahm is the favorite on the odds board as an inexperienced Smalley (who has never won on the PGA Tour) and three others at 4 under do not hold a candle to his résumé. The Spaniard had the putter rolling on the front nine on Saturday before it wobbled a bit coming home. Still, he hit 15 greens in regulation and should a similar diet material