Campaign

Battle for House control heats up in Nebraska as voters head to polls

Comments:

by Sarah Fortinsky - 05/12/26 6:00 AM ET

Comments:

Link copied

by Sarah Fortinsky - 05/12/26 6:00 AM ET

Comments:

Link copied

NOW PLAYING

The spotlight is on Nebraska’s “blue dot” congressional district as voters head to the polls in a primary that could help shape the battle for control of the House this November.

Voters in the Cornhusker State and West Virginia will cast ballots Tuesday in congressional and state legislative primaries, while Nebraskans will also select nominees for statewide executive offices, including governor.

The most closely watched race in Nebraska is the Democratic primary to replace retiring Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), with state Sen. John Cavanaugh and political consultant Denise Powell competing for the chance to take on Omaha City Council member Brinker Harding, who is running unopposed in the GOP primary.

Bacon was one of just three House Republicans elected in 2024 in districts won by former Vice President Kamala Harris, making the seat a top Democratic target this fall.

“This is probably the Democrats’ best pickup shot in a seat that is not redistricted. You’re talking about a seat that Harris won by 4 or 5 percentage points in 2024 and, as such, it’s a top target, and Don Bacon retiring has made it even better,” Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ, told The Hill.

“It seems like the general view at this point is that Democrats are more likely to win the seat than not, in the general election, but that’s not to write off Republican chances by any means,” he continued.

In Nebraska’s Senate primaries, meanwhile, a bitter proxy battle has emerged as Democrats try to clear the field for independent candidate Dan Osborn to mount a competitive challenge against incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) in November.

“Ricketts is going to win the Republican primary, and then it’s a question of, is he going to end up facing independent Dan Osborn head-to-head, or will there be other candidates on the general election ballot?” Skelley said.

In Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, Cavanaugh, a state legislator with strong name ID and family ties in Nebraska politics, and Powell, a marketing consultant, have emerged as the leading contenders in the six-candidate Democratic primary to face Harding in November.

The primary campaign has turned bitter, with airwaves flooded by negative ads between the top two Democrats. But strategists say the fierce battle reflects the stakes of the race for Nebraska’s “blue dot” district.

“They’re going at it hard because they know the winner is going to Congress. It’s worth fighting for. They’re not fighting for second place in November,” Nebraska-based Democratic strategist Vince Powers said.

Nebraska GOP strategist Ryan Horn similarly acknowledged that Democrats will enter the general election with an advantage, noting Harris was “a terrible candidate” and “a terrible fit for this district,” but she still carried the district by 5 points in 2024.

“So it is not a Republican district. It’s really not even a swing district. It’s a D plus 5 or 6 district, in reality, in a neutral year,” Horn told The Hill in an interview. “The only reason people still see it this way is because Don Bacon did a good job holding it and getting reelected every year.”

A third candidate, Crystal Rhoades, a clerk for the Douglas County District Court, is viewed as a long shot, Powers said, noting, “She doesn’t have much money, but she’s a real effective campaigner. Her hope is that she kind of sneaks in through the middle as Cavanaugh and Powell are going at it.”

Despite the bitter primary, Powers said he’s hopeful the party will come together ahead of November.

“Ultimately, Nebraska is a moderate state, and, outside of Omaha and Lincoln, it’s a conservative state,” Powers said. “So I think that any of the Democrats running present a real challenge for the Republicans.”

“By July 4 everybody will be on the same page, and the page is we need a Democratic House,” he added.

Meanwhile, a messy Democratic primary in the Senate race could threaten the party’s efforts to boost Osborn in the general election.

The primary features Cindy Burbank — a retired pharmacy technician who says she will drop out of the race if she wins Tuesday— and William Forbes, a pastor facing accusations of being a “plant” for the Ricketts campaign.

Opponents of Ricketts, many of whom have rallied around Osborn, fear any additional candidate on the general election ballot could hurt the independent’s chances in November. Osborn made national headlines after mounting a closer-than-expected challenge against Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) in 2024.

“For Osborn, any vote that ends up going to a Democratic candidate is siphoning votes that would otherwise probably go to him,” S