NCAA bracket 2026: Best March Madness seed upsets to target based on previous trends

Don't be afraid to select the worse seed; the payoffs are immense

Zachary Pereles

Mar 18, 2026

11:27 am ET

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7 min read

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It's the age-old question you ask yourself over and over and over again as you fill out your NCAA Tournament bracket: Where are the upsets coming from?

Picking upsets is fun. Everyone loves Cinderella. No one ever rooted for Goliath against David unless you either 1) are actually a fan/alumnus of Goliath University or 2) have a lot riding on Goliath University in your bracket. And even then, sometimes, you have to admit you love the underdog's story.

Picking upsets is also nerve-wracking. How much mid-major basketball did you actually watch this year? Are you picking based on the five minutes you watched in their conference tournament? Following the experts? Liking their mascot? Hitting the upset is fun. The I-told-you-so feeling is fleeting, and I encourage you to embrace it. After all, March Madness bracket pools are fun. They're something everyone can rally around, die-hard sports fan, casual fan or "My friend's aunt's cat sitter went there, so I'm picking them" strategist. You have to enjoy the wins.

Correctly called upsets lead to winning brackets. Playing it safe leads to safe brackets. As I wrote last year, "We're not here to have a 'pretty good bracket.' No one's ever gloated about a 10th-place finish in their bracket pool. We're here to win."

But how many upsets should we pick? That's why we're here to help. Let's start with the history. Since the 1985 expansion to 64 teams, here's what the seed-by-seed First Round matchups look like.

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SEED VS. SEEDWIN-LOSSWIN PCT.No. 9 vs. No. 883-770.519No. 10 vs. No. 762-970.390No. 11 vs. No. 662-980.387No. 12 vs. No. 557-1030.356No. 13 vs. No. 433-1270.206No. 14 vs. No. 323-1370.144No. 15 vs. No. 211-1490.069No. 16 vs. No. 12-1580.012Last year, two (9) seeds, two (10) seeds and two (12) seeds won in the First Round, and we also got one 11-over-6 upset. So knowing these upsets do happen -- and how often they occur -- is the first step.

The second step is actually getting them right. And for that, we're running through our favorite seed upset pick on every line.

(9) Utah State Aggies

First-round opponent: (8) Villanova Wildcats

The Mountain West's climb in the men's college basketball hierarchy hit a bit of a dip this year, with the conference only earning one bid -- Utah State's automatic bid as conference tournament champions -- after getting at least four bids each of the past four years. But don't take that to mean the Aggies should be grouped in with all the other single-bid leagues.

Jerrod Calhoun's bunch went 28-6, beat VCU in the nonconference slate and boat raced the Mountain West Tournament, winning all three games by double digits. Conference player of the year Mason Falslev took another step forward, upping his percentages from 3 (38% to 41%), from 2 (55% to 56%) and from the free throw line (58% to 76%). That last category is important because Falslev got to the line a lot this season -- his 104 makes were more than his first two years (103) combined.

But it's really senior guard MJ Collins Jr. who makes this year's iteration of the Aggies feel a bit different. He's scored 20-plus points in three of his last four games, and his jump to 35% from 3 has been massive; he was previously below 30% for his career.

The Aggies can space you out and then get to the basket; they averaged 1.28 points per possession at the rim -- a top-30 rank nationally. Outside of Duke Brennan, Villanova doesn't have much rim protection; the Wildcats were 341st in block rate this season.

Long story short, the Aggies have experience, guard play and depth, and they can score in a lot of ways.

(10) Missouri Tigers

First-round opponent: (7) Miami Hurricanes

Missouri can be a frustrating watch. The Tigers don't shoot the ball particularly well, don't take care of the ball particularly well and can be a bit stagnant.

And yet this team is absolutely relentless. Now a senior, Mark Mitchell is the fully formed version of what appeared possible when he was a blue-chip recruit headed to Duke. He shoots a ton of free throws, attacks the basket (and opposing defenders) with abandon and crashes the offensive boards hard. His battle with Malik Reneau will be a fun one to watch. Mitchell's teammates often follow his lead; TO Barrett is another downhill driver whose role increased significantly over the second half of the season. And, if needed, the Tigers can squeeze some shooting out of Jacob Crews (45% from 3), Trent Pierce (40%) and Jayden Stone (38%).

Missouri's defense can be inconsistent, too, but Dennis Gates' team has the length and strength to match Miami's rim attackers; the Hurrican