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Republicans should not dismiss a Kamala Harris comeback in 2028

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by Douglas MacKinnon, opinion contributor - 04/18/26 12:00 PM ET

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by Douglas MacKinnon, opinion contributor - 04/18/26 12:00 PM ET

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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – APRIL 10: Former Vice President Kamala Harris, a potential future presidential candidate, attends

the National Action Network (NAN) annual convention on April 10, 2026 in New York City. The 2026 annual convention of NAN brings politicians, civil rights leaders, community advocates, and others together for four days of discussions and panels. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

A political poll of interest was recently released by YouGov that showed former Vice President Kamala Harris not only leading the field of prospective Democratic nominees for 2028 but actually crushing California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) in a primary by 12 points. No doubt after it was released, there was a good deal of snickering among Republican operatives, most likely thinking, “Harris? Really?”

To them, I would say, “Yes, really.”

Politics is a fickle business even in the best of times, with the prospects for various political candidates ebbing and surging constantly. That constant reality has been heavily augmented in the age of Trump and of social media.

Back in 2004 — before Trump’s rise and the incessant poisonous partisan posting by all sides — we had the Democratic primary fight between former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry. Many Democrats believed Dean had the momentum and Kerry would soon be an afterthought. Dean was especially gaining favor with young, left-wing voters, as he was the only main candidate in the pack to come out against the disastrous war in Iraq.

But then, all his momentum flipped. He underperformed and lost the Iowa caucuses, then let loose with what came to be known as the “Dean Scream.” His comically exuberant moment was played hundreds of times in the New Hampshire media market days before that state’s critical primary, and goodbye Howard Dean.

Kerry, entirely written off until the Iowa result, captured all of the momentum after Dean suspended his campaign, then nearly defeated then-President George W. Bush in the general election. Kerry did not concede until the day after the 2004 election, when it became clear that Bush had won the deciding state of Ohio.

Twenty-two years ago, the candidate with all the momentum collapsed, and the one written off by almost everyone nearly became president. That could very well happen again in 2028. Whether Harris decides to jump back into the presidential arena or not, it is counterproductive for Republicans to belittle her or her chances.

To be sure, President Trump soundly defeated Harris in 2024 in both the Electoral College and the popular vote. But guess what? Trump will not be the Republican nominee come 2028.

Trump’s political career has been political lightning in a bottle — the kind that only flashes once every few generations. He has that all-important “It factor.” And many from the MAGA base only came out to vote for Trump. What percentage of that base will stay home in 2028, when Trump is no longer on the ballot? A fair number, to be sure.

Instead of laughing at the prospect of Harris being nominated again in 2028, Republicans would do much better to remember that the election in 2016 came down to fewer than 100,000 votes in certain swing states, and in 2020 to less than 50,000 votes. Presidential elections are still won and lost by flipping slivers of 1 percent of the vote in just a few counties and states.

The Republicans I speak with are increasingly fearful that they are losing the voter bump Trump gave them in 2024 with young voters, minority voters, independents and centrist Democrats. These small but all-important slivers may soon be flipped back into the Democratic column.

How many canaries must die before Republicans realize the air in their own mine shaft might be growing toxic? Are special election losses a harbinger of things to come? What about Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) in Virginia? Or Viktor Orban’s brutal loss in Hungary? What other tells should Republicans be looking for? Or worse, what are they missing?

My advice to any Republicans tempted to scoff at or dismiss Harris would be to take a long hard look at your own poll numbers instead. Trump is not going to be there to save you in 2028. Millions of his voters may stay home.

Also, Americans love a political second act. Campaign accordingly.

Douglas MacKinnon is a former White House and Pentagon official.

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