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California’s voter ID referendum gives Republicans a genuine shot at reform

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by J.T. Young, opinion contributor - 05/05/26 10:30 AM ET

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by J.T. Young, opinion contributor - 05/05/26 10:30 AM ET

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Republican Assemblymember Carl DeMaio speaks at a press conference on Wednesday, July 16, 2025, in Sacramento, Calif., to announce a campaign to require voter identification in California. (AP Photo/Tran Nguyen)

California’s upcoming voter ID referendum gives Republicans their first statewide election opportunity in years. At least it does if Republicans can keep opponents from twisting this issue as Democrats just did in Virginia’s recent redistricting election.

Recently a voter ID measure qualified for California’s November ballot after receiving over 962,000 signatures supporting its inclusion in less than two months. It would require voters to show identification, or mail-in ballots to include an identification number, and require county registrars to verify voters’ citizenship status.

A similar ID requirement already applies to airline travel, hotel stays, car rentals, banking and firearm purchases. Democrats haven’t labeled these requirements abridgments of civil rights.

Requiring IDs for voters is also extremely popular nationally: Gallup found 84 percent of Americans support requiring photo IDs and 83 percent supported proof of citizenship for first-time registration. Even in Democrat-dominant California, 71 percent support requiring proof of citizenship for first-time registration and 54 percent support requiring ID each time an individual votes.

A Republican policy priority, the measure could also pay political dividends. Polling has shown Republicans doing consistently well in California’s open gubernatorial primary — even before scandal forced the leading Democrat, former U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D), out of the race.

California Democrats face some mounting headwinds. In addition to Swalwell’s abrupt withdrawal, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) job approval polling is slightly negative at 44 to 45 percent — his lowest level since 2024.

California’s taxes are already among America’s highest. The Tax Foundation ranked it 48th out of 50 on tax competitiveness, yet it still faces a ballooning budget deficit. In Los Angeles, Democratic mayor Karen Bass remains unpopular, with only 19.5 percent supportin her reelection in a March poll, thanks to her handling of the city’s 2025 wildfires that killed at least 31.

A popular ballot initiative like voter ID could pull Republican supporters to the polls and sway voters to consider voting for a Republican gubernatorial candidate supporting the referendum. Anything that could boost Republican turnout for their gubernatorial candidate and others down-ballot would be welcome to Republicans, who are usually an afterthought in California politics.

Winning the governorship could begin planting a political farm system for the party that has not held the governorship in 15 years — also the last time Republicans won a statewide office. It could also give Republicans eight years to build up party experience, because serving two terms is the norm for California governors. Aside from Gray Davis (1999-2003), no governor has served fewer than two terms since 1959.

How depleted is the California Republican bench? Following the 2024 election, there were only seven Republicans in California’s 54-seat House delegation. Currently, there are 10 Republicans in California’s 40-member Senate and just 20 Republicans in California’s 80-member State Assembly. All these percentages are well below President Trump’s 38.3 percent of California’s 2024 popular vote.

So, it seems Republicans have their best California opportunity in a while. Well, they do unless the voter ID measure gets politicized.

As Politico reported, the poll also pushed partisan messages that Democrats are likely to use. For example, when respondents were told that Republican Assemblymember Carl DeMaio (R) had sponsored the bill due to concerns of “widespread election fraud” and the Democrats’ argument that the measure is “part of a Trump-backed effort to suppress voters of color,” only “39 percent supported it and 52 percent opposed it.”

That is, of course, what recently happened in Virginia in a referendum on mid-decade House redistricting. There, district maps that produced today’s 6-5 Democratic majority in Virginia’s House delegation were replaced with a new map that is projected to yield a 10-1 Democratic majority.

Despite the unbalanced outcome, the ballot asked if Virginia’s Constitution should “be amended to allow the General Assembly to temporarily adopt new congressional