Nexstar Media Wire News State of Texas: Poll tracks U.S. Senate race, Trump approval in Texas by James Phillips, Dylan McKim, Kelly Wiley, Nabil Remadna, Josh Hinkle and John Thomas - 02/28/26 8:58 PM ET by James Phillips, Dylan McKim, Kelly Wiley, Nabil Remadna, Josh Hinkle and John Thomas - 02/28/26 8:58 PM ET Share ✕ LinkedIn LinkedIn Email Email NOW PLAYING New episodes of State of Texas are on KXAN or the   KXAN+ app  every Sunday at 8:30 a.m. Don’t want to wait? Scroll down to continue watching this week’s segments now. AUSTIN (Nexstar) — Tuesday is one of the most consequential days of the year in Texas politics. Voters will decide who appears on the November ballot – or in many cases, who advances to a May runoff. A new poll from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas offers a late snapshot of the U.S. Senate primaries — and how Texans view President Donald Trump. The poll shows U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett with a 56% to 44% lead over State Rep. James Talarico. But Texas Politics Project Director James Henson noted that the survey was conducted before a recent spike in national attention surrounding Talarico. “This poll was in the field February 2nd to the 16th. That was right before whatever you want to call l’affair Colbert, really drove a lot of interest, additional interest in James Talarico,” Henson said, referencing an interview the candidate did with late night host Stephen Colbert. The interview went viral after Colbert claimed CBS blocked the interview from airing. CBS denied the claim. Henson said the candidates entered early voting with different levels of visibility. “He was a state legislator. Jasmine Crockett, much more well known,” Henson said, but added Talarico has been working to close the gap. “So the Talarico campaign has had two things to do and frankly overall they’ve done a pretty good job to be this competitive. One is to introduce James Talarico to a lot of people that had no idea who he was and then to persuade them to vote for him.” “I think they’ve made progress. I just think he was still in the course of making that progress when we were in the field collecting this data.” On the Republican side, Sen. John Cornyn faces a fierce challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Congressman Wesley Hunt. The Texas Politics Project poll shows Paxton with 36% over Cornyn’s 34% and Hunt with 26%. Henson said a runoff appears likely. “Probably one of the few sure bets in this primary cycle in Texas is that that race is going into a runoff,” Henson said. He added that divisions among Republican voters are shaping the race. “So you got about a big chunk of Paxton supporters that really don’t like John Cornyn, a big chunk of John Cornyn voters really don’t like Ken Paxton. That created sort of the opportunity and the rationale for the Wesley Hunt candidacy in a lot of ways.” Cornyn, Paxton, and Hunt have all pushed to highlight their ties to President Donald Trump. On Friday, the President traveled to Corpus Christi for an event, focused on his policies on energy and the economy. But Trump also took time to praise dozens of candidates on Tuesday’s ballot, including Cornyn, Paxton, and Hunt. He did not single any of them out for an endorsement. The President offered praise for both Paxton and Cornyn in almost the same breath during his speech in Corpus Christi. “We have a great Attorney General Ken Paxton,” Trump said. “And we have a great Senator, John Cornyn,” he added just seconds later. “You’re in a little race together. You know that, right? A little bit of a race. It’s going to be an interesting one, right? They’re both great people, too,” Trump said to the audience referencing Cornyn and Paxton. Polling shows the President’s approval numbers have declined in Texas, with 49% disapproving of the job he’s doing, compared to 45% approval. But among Texas Republicans, Trump enjoys an 81% job approval rating. That’s down from the 92% rating he had at the start of his second term. “He’s cooled off but still undoubtedly the Republican voice in the state. There’s no two ways about that,” Henson said. Group works to encourage Texans to vote in primary elections NOW PLAYING Historically, Texas does not have a large voter turnout during the March primaries. Experts say people who usually vote in the primary self-identify as more extreme members of their party. But things could be different in this primary election. Early voting numbers show an increase in voter turnout, particularly in the Democratic primary. Reports from Ryan Data and Research indicate that Democrats are seeing significant numbers of people voting in the primaries for the first time. More than a quarter of early ballots came from voters who previ