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Virginia redistricting ruling deals blow to Democrats’ midterm hopes

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by Julia Mueller - 05/09/26 6:00 AM ET

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by Julia Mueller - 05/09/26 6:00 AM ET

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The Virginia Supreme Court on Friday dealt a blow to Democrats’ hopes of flipping the House this fall, throwing out the redistricting referendum that was set to give Democrats a midterm boost.

The Virginia court’s decision invalidates the state’s newly adopted congressional map, which would’ve expanded Democrats’ expected edge from 6-5 to 10-1.

The ruling does not erase Democrats’ chances of flipping the House in November, when both low approval numbers for President Trump and historical trends are expected to work in their favor. But it’s a setback in the redistricting arms race after new, GOP-friendly maps in multiple red states had given Republicans more than a dozen new pickup opportunities.

It also comes just days after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on Louisiana’s maps weakened a portion of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) and sparked new talk of redistricting in more red states across the South.

Democrats seethed at the outcome, accusing the GOP of hypocrisy.

“Today, four unelected judges decided to cast aside the will of the voters. This is a setback that sends a terrible message to Americans – the powerful and elite will do everything they can to silence you,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene (Wash.), chair of the Democrats’ House campaign arm, adding that voters will “power Democrats to the House majority” in the fall.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who championed the Democratic-friendly map that was approved by voters last fall in the Golden State, pointed out in a post on social platform X that this cycle’s redistricting changes in five red states were made without going out to voters.

“Virginia’s voter-approved maps thrown out. MAGA has rigged the system,” Newsom said.

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) similarly contrasted Virginia’s process with “Republican-led states that have redrawn their maps through backroom deals.”

“If the Virginia Supreme Court had legitimate concerns about this referendum, the time to stop it would have been before three million Virginians cast their ballots,” the senator said in a statement. “But the Court let the process move forward, and Virginians sent a message loud and clear: we see President Trump’s brazen power grab in states across the country, and we won’t stand for it.”

Virginians last month voted to approve a state constitutional amendment allowing the Legislature to temporarily draw new lines, which were expected to hold until the redistricting power reverted to a bipartisan commission after the 2030 census.

Big names and money poured into the effort on both sides, and the measure narrowly passed, putting Democrats on a more even keel with Republicans in the redistricting tit for tat.

Altogether, Democrats were expected to gain up to 10 seats from voter-passed redistricting plans in California and Virginia and a court-ordered change in Utah. Republicans at that point were predicted to gain nine.

John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, told The Associated Press at the time that Virginia had “successfully blunted Trump’s attempt to completely hijack the midterms.”

Friday’s ruling changes that numbers game.

Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ, said that after the Virginia court decision, “You’re talking about a one- to two-seat pickup being what Democrats can hope for, versus potentially four seats.”

“That’s not going to entirely decide House control, but … [Republicans] are now in a position where they are going to pick up more seats from just redistricting fallout than Democrats,” Skelley said. “And before this, it was a bit closer to neutral.”

The Virginia ruling was the latest in a barrage of redistricting developments in recent weeks.

Florida moved to redistrict after the Virginia vote, giving the GOP as many as four pickup opportunities in the Sunshine State.

The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision ruling Louisiana’s map unconstitutional set off a wave of additional redistricting attempts in the South, including in South Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

Tennessee lawmakers also approved a new map this past week, after the VRA ruling, setting Republicans up to gain the lone Democratic seat in the state’s nine-member House delegation.

In a best-case scenario for Republicans, new maps in nine states that have made or are considering GOP-friendly changes, plus Democratic-friendly maps in California and Utah, result in a net of 13 flipped seats for the GOP, according to a Cook Political Report analysis.

Cook Polit