Morning Report

‘Flashing red’ warning signs for GOP put Senate in play

by Jared Gans - 04/24/26 7:07 AM ET

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by Jared Gans - 04/24/26 7:07 AM ET

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In today’s issue:

- Concerning midterm signs for GOP

- Internal Epstein files audit

- Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extended

- White House Correspondents’ Association dinner

The warning signals have never been louder for the GOP as the midterm elections rapidly approach, with the economic impact of the Iran war fueling voter anxiety and stiffening headwinds for the party in power.

Republicans were hit with a double whammy of heartburn-inducing polling on back-to-back days Wednesday and Thursday.

A Cook Political Report poll found Democrats holding a 6-point advantage in a survey of the 36 House districts most likely to determine which party wins a majority in the lower chamber. That was up from a steady 3-to-5-point lead for Democrats in a generic ballot.

And a Fox News poll showed more voters believe Democrats would better handle the economy than Republicans for the first time since 2010, with inflation and the economy topping voter priorities.

Geoffrey Skelley, the chief elections analyst for Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), told The Hill the Iran war and its economic impact, particularly a spike in gas prices, are compounding to create a more difficult political environment for the GOP.

“Thinking about people’s economic pessimism, concern about cost of living, the conflict in Iran … people seeing their gas prices through the roof, and if that doesn’t settle a bit or go down a bit before November, these are all things I think are creating conditions where it’s easier to imagine the Democrats pulling off the Senate win,” Skelley said.

Cook called the results of its poll a “flashing red warning sign” for Republican candidates running in competitive districts.

“If that advantage were to hold come November, any district Trump carried by 10 points or less could be in significant danger of flipping into Democratic hands,” the outlet’s Amy Walter and Carrie Dann wrote in their analysis.

Earlier this month, Cook shifted four Senate races toward Democrats, assessing that the GOP remained the favorite to win the upper chamber but adding “that outlook could change in the coming months.”

A marathon vote-a-rama overnight on Wednesday pointed to the pressure facing some of the most vulnerable Republicans. GOP Sens. Dan Sullivan (Alaska) and Sen. Susan Collins (Maine) cast multiple votes with Democrats for amendments to tackle the cost of health care, which were shot down by the rest of their party.

Former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) outraised Sullivan in the first quarter, with a $9 million haul, and led by more than 6 points in a poll taken this month. In Maine, Collins has trailed Graham Platner, the favorite to win the Democratic primary, in head-to-head polls.

Cook favors Democrats to win the North Carolina seat being vacated by Sen. Thom Tillis (R), rates the race for GOP Sen. Jon Husted’s seat in Ohio as a tossup and has the Senate elections in Iowa, Texas and Nebraska as “likely” Republican.

Democrats need to pick up four GOP seats, and hold the ones they have, to flip the Senate, given Vice President Vance’s tie-breaking vote.

President Trump’s sinking approval rating has also given Republicans more reason for concern.

A survey released this week from The Associated Press-NORC showed just a third of respondents said they approved of his job performance, the lowest point of his second term and near the lowest ever. Only 30 percent said they approved of his handling of the economy, an 8-point drop from last month.

Trump’s approval rating in the DDHQ national average stands just above 40 percent, while his average disapproval is the highest it’s been this term at 57 percent.

But even as Democrats are pulling ahead in the polls and winning off-year elections, The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports some in the party are worried Democrats are misreading what their successes signal. Instead of indicating electoral support for their own policies and messaging, these skeptics warn the swing is based only on a backlash to the president.

“No one knows what we stand for anymore except that we loathe Trump with every bone in our bodies,” one consultant told Parnes. “That’s not lost on anyone. But what else?”

Still, Skelley said the momentum is clearly on the left with less than 200 days until the midterm election.

“I still would give Republicans a slight edge in the race for the Senate … just Democrats have to have a lot of things go right now. Those things could go right,”