Tracking key injuries in the NCAA Tournament and the impact on each team ahead of the Big Dance

Updates on Louisville's Mikel Brown Jr. and Duke's Patrick Ngongba and Caleb Foster, along with status check-ins on Kansas freshman phenom Darryn Peterson and UCLA duo Donovan Dent and Tyler Bilodeau

Isaac Trotter

Mar 18, 2026

6:00 pm ET

•

9 min read

Katie DeVaney / Getty Images

The injury bug has ravaged numerous NCAA Tournament teams in a historic way in the lead-up to the 2026 Big Dance. In the last 20 NCAA Tournaments, there have only been six 18+ points per game scorers to miss the opener with injuries. Four of them will occur this week, namely Louisville's Mikel Brown Jr, BYU's Richie Saunders, Texas Tech's JT Toppin and North Carolina's Caleb Wilson.

It's a massive letdown for high-profile teams with legitimate Final Four dreams, and it does not include Alabama, who will be without second-leading scorer Aden Holloway, who was arrested Monday on felony drug charges.

Let's dive into the injuries to know heading into the NCAA Tournament and the fallout of what it means on the court for their respective clubs.

Mikel Brown Jr., Louisville

The skinny: Mikel Brown Jr. will not play in Thursday's first-round tilt against South Florida after another flare-up with a pesky back injury. The five-star freshman has missed 12 total games with this back injury. He leads Louisville in assists and ranks second in scoring at 18.2 points per game.

What it means on the hardwood: Louisville's advanced stats hint that the Cardinals are not a drastically team with or without Brown. Louisville has a +5.4 net rating with him and a +7.0 net rating without Brown against top-100 teams, per hoop-explorer. Even without Brown, Louisville went on the road and beat Miami (who earned a No. 7 seed) just 11 days ago. But the eye test tells a different story. Brown is Louisville's top paint-touch guard, and he creates better looks for Ryan Conwell — Louisville's leading scorer — when he's on the floor. Louisville will ramp up the usage for sharpshooter Isaac McKneely and prized backup guard Adrian Wooley while Brown is on the mend.

Patrick Ngongba, Duke

The skinny: Duke starting big man Patrick Ngongba missed the ACC Tournament with a foot injury, and he is not expected to play in Duke's first-round game against No. 16 seed Siena on Thursday. While Scheyer noted that Ngongba is getting closer, his status for Saturday's second-round tilt against the Ohio State-TCU winner is still cloudy.

What it means on the hardwood: Losing Foster is a big blow, but Ngongba's status may loom even larger. Backup center Maliq Brown is the ACC Defensive Player of the Year, but Duke's rim defense is far better with Ngongba, not Brown, anchoring the back line. Top-100 opponents shoot just 51.8% at the rim against Duke when Ngongba is on the floor, per hoop-explorer. That number soars to 60% when he sits. Plus, you have more buttons to press offensively when Ngongba is on the floor.

Caleb Foster, Duke

The skinny: Caleb Foster broke his foot in the regular-season finale and will miss the first two weeks of the NCAA Tournament, at minimum. Duke coach Jon Scheyer reitered there is a slight chance that Foster could try to return for the Final Four, but that timeline is aggressive. Foster started 30 games at point guard for the Blue Devils.

What it means on the hardwood: Suddenly, Duke is very young and very thin. Foster had transformed into one of Duke's most valuable role players because he drilled open 3s at a 40% clip, guarded his yard and made good decisions with the basketball. With Foster on the mend, freshman point guard Cayden Boozer has been thrust into a major role. He played all 40 minutes in Duke's ACC Tournament championship win against Virginia and was impeccable. Duke gets more natural playmaking when Cayden Boozer is on the floor, but opposing teams will continue to dare the freshman to beat them from downtown. He is shooting under 29% from beyond the arc on low volume.

> Ran the numbers on how many open 3s Louisville creates with and without Mikel Brown Jr. against high-major foes.

With Brown for 16 games: 9.1 per game, 42% from 3

Without Brown for 11 games: 9.1 per game, 36% from 3

This system creates open 3s, but there's a slight downgrade.

— Isaac Trotter (@Isaac__Trotter) March 18, 2026

JT Toppin, Texas Tech

The skinny: JT Toppin suffered a cruel season-ending knee injury on Feb. 17 to cut a fabulous junior campaign short. Toppin was chasing Big 12 Player of the Year honors and would've been a shoo-in to be a First-Team All-American. With Toppin, Texas Tech would've been a real threat to make the Final Four. Without him, the calculus has changed.

What it means on the hardwood: Texas Tech's best chance to win a game now involves shooting a million 3s. Without Toppin, Texas Tech's 3-point rate has skyrocketed to over 51%. There is a ton of pressure on fellow All-American point guard Christian Anderson to sco