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Trump’s bad polls spell trouble for GOP ahead of midterms

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by Julia Mueller and Caroline Vakil - 05/04/26 4:45 PM ET

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by Julia Mueller and Caroline Vakil - 05/04/26 4:45 PM ET

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President Trump’s surging disapproval rating is threatening to become a liability for downballot Republicans as the party looks to keep its fragile GOP trifecta in November.

An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released Sunday found the president at a new high in his disapproval — 62 percent — while 37 percent said they approved of his job helming of the country. Close to three-fourths disapproved of his handling of the cost of living (76 percent) and inflation (72 percent), with two-thirds of respondents saying the same about the Iranian conflict.

The polling, coupled with low marks he’s received in similar surveys, risk jeopardizing GOP candidates in an election cycle already shaping up to look like the 2018 midterms fueled by anti-Trump sentiment.

“What matters most to the American people is having a Commander-in-Chief who takes decisive action to eliminate threats and keep them safe, which is exactly what President Trump did with the successful Operation Epic Fury,” White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told The Hill in a statement.

“President Trump campaigned proudly on his promise to deny the Iranian regime the ability to develop a nuclear weapon, and he’s kept his promise,” Ingle continued. “The President does not make these incredibly important national security decisions based on fluid opinion polls, but on the best interest of the American people.”

Recent polling, however, has shown Trump’s approval rating taking a nosedive as his disapproval rating has continued to hit new highs.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll last week also found Trump’s broad approval at a second-term low, with similar record lows on the economy and foreign policy.

Trump has said he “won affordability” and the battle against inflation, casting blame on his predecessor while touting his sweeping tariffs and the major tax-cut bill enacted last year.

But in March the annual inflation rate hit 3.5 percent, up from 2.8 percent in February, despite Trump’s suggestion of “fake inflation” and promises that rising costs are short-term pains. The unemployment rate also was at 4.3 percent in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, up from 4 percent in January.

Trump’s approval rating on the economy dropped 8 percentage points between March and April in The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll. Though a majority of Republicans still had a positive view of Trump’s economic moves, that number dropped from 74 percent to 62 percent in the last month, a stark change from the president’s base.

Democrats have already sought to make the midterms a referendum on the president and his party.

“The Democrats are going to say, ‘This is about Trump. Forget about who we are. Forget about our platform or issues. This is just about what the president is,’” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, explained.

“The Republicans are going to have to somehow distance themselves from some of those policies while still coming up with other ideas for why voters should vote for them as opposed to just continuing on with the Trump policies,” Kimball said, “and I think they’re in a tough place.”

The president has also seen his approval ratings impacted by other issues during the first half of his second term in office, including his immigration policy and, more recently, the war in Iran. The international conflict is already being felt at the gas pumps amid surging energy prices.

The U.S. is attempting to broker a new nuclear deal with Tehran after Trump left an agreement with the country during his first administration. Iran over the weekend issued a new threat over the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for the oil industry that has been effectively shuttered during the conflict, after Trump announced the U.S. would help free up ships to move safely.

Just 32 percent of Americans in the AP-NORC poll approved of Trump’s leadership on Iran, though he said last week that the U.S. had “already won” in the conflict.

In the Reuters polling, 61 percent of Americans said they disapproved of the U.S. strikes against Iran, including 25 percent of Republicans and 67 percent of independents.

“Frankly, I’m past a point where I’m comfortable, but I still think we have the time,” Jason Cabel Roe, a Michigan Republican strategist, said when asked how long a window the GOP has on managing energy prices before there are downstream ramifications for the party at the polls.

“Markets don’t really react to supply. They react to stability a