With Iran still in control of Hormuz, Trump threatens NATO and oil hits $106

Good morning. In today’s Fortune : Oil was at $106 per barrel this morning. Trump threatens NATO, again. Wall Street digs in, and not in a good way. Who won what at the Oscars. Investment in physical AI robots hit $41 billion per year. Fertilizer prices go through the roof. Crypto markets are betting big on oil. THE MARKETS Recommended Video Oil driving everything Oil was up to $106 per barrel this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 0.44% prior to the opening in New York. The index closed down 0.61% on Friday and is now 4% below its peak. Asia and the U.K. are largely up or flat this morning but the Stoxx Europe 600 was down 0.43% before lunch. Bitcoin is at $73K. Central bank-a-palooza: There’s an unusual confluence of base interest rate decisions coming this week from the U.S. Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Royal Bank of Australia, and the Bank of Canada. Chart from TradingEconomics.com TOP STORIES IRAN Trump threatens NATO if it doesn’t support him on Iran In a move that will win him no new friends in the West, President Trump threatened “very bad” things for NATO if the alliance’s countries don’t send ships to help him reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Fortune’s Jason Ma noted late last night. “If there’s no response or if it’s a negative response I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO,” Trump said. Context: Trump previously threatened to invade Greenland and Canada, both NATO members. He also implied he might retract support for Ukraine. And he lifted sanctions on Russian oil even though that country is bombing Europe’s Eastern flank. Trump’s plea underlines the most important dynamic in the war against Iran right now: The fact that Iran controls the strait but has not blocked it. Iran allowed a tanker to sail to China, for instance. U.S.-Israeli forces haven’t been able to gain access for Western-allied vessels. “It is only closed to the tankers and ships belonging to our enemies, to those who are attacking us and their allies,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Saturday . Iran has options , according to MIT political science professor Caitlin Talmadge: mines. “Historically, mine clearance has been slow and it is almost impossible to do under fire,” she wrote in Foreign Affairs . “In short, if Iran effectively mines the strait, all U.S. response options are suboptimal,” Talmadge warned. “The United States should therefore focus aggressively on preventing Iranian mine-laying in the first place and finding an off-ramp from the larger war. If it does not, Washington should expect that ongoing harassment of traffic in the strait will be but one of a number of responses that Iran has long prepared and will now deploy.” Live coverage of today’s attacks from the BBC here . It’s the media’s fault: With his poll numbers in decline and MAGA supporters frustrated by a war he promised not to start, Trump is increasingly complaining about media coverage of the conflict. On Saturday, he said: “Media actually want us to lose the War.” His FCC chief threatened to cancel network broadcast licenses unless they “correct course.” Trump was up late last night writing long posts about judges he doesn’t like . Wall Street sees a long war Six more weeks? As of Saturday, the Pentagon “believed that it would take four to six weeks to complete this mission and that we’re ahead of schedule,” Kevin Hassett said on CBS’ Face the Nation . “We expect that the global economy is going to have a big positive shock as soon as this is over.” “Protracted war cannot be ruled out”: But investment bank analysts are increasingly pessimistic that Trump will declare victory and leave the Gulf anytime soon. Bank of America’s Antonio Gabriel sent a terse note this morning: “While a quick resolution to the conflict is certainly a possibility, we view the conflict extending into 2Q as an equally likely outcome, and a more protracted war cannot be ruled out. However, markets seem to be pricing a largely transitory shock…In our view, the more disruptive scenarios for global growth are underpriced.” $100 oil will “break parts of the world economy”. Oxford Economics’ Michael Pearce told clients that the impact of oil going to $100 per barrel is “a worst-case scenario that begins to break parts of the world economy. The impact to the U.S. economy is still mostly via higher gasoline prices, which boost inflation and weigh on households’ real disposable incomes and consumer spending. There would be some offset from higher oil production and investment, but there’s a lag effect, and in the near term, the economy would take a hit,” with GDP growth being cut by the better part of a percentage point: HOLLYWOOD Who won what at the Oscars One Battle After Another was the big winner with six awards last night, including best picture and best director. Sinners got four (Michael B. Jordan got best actor), and Frankenstein took three. Full coverage from The Hollywood Reporter here. CHART OF THE DAY