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Can Republicans hold Florida after DeSantis?

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by Douglas MacKinnon, opinion contributor - 05/09/26 12:00 PM ET

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by Douglas MacKinnon, opinion contributor - 05/09/26 12:00 PM ET

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Over the last few weeks and months, I have asked Republican voters in the state of Florida a question that has sent an admitted chill down their spine: “What if the Republicans lose the election for governor in November?”

Many people — myself included — believe that the current governor, Ron DeSantis, is not only exceptional at the job, but also easily the best governor in the nation. More than that, they believe he saved the Sunshine State and its people at the height of COVID-19 hysteria by standing tall for personal freedoms. As blue state after blue state instituted liberty-robbing draconian measures in the guise of helping their constituents, many shuddered at the thought of what would have happened if then-Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D) had defeated DeSantis in 2018.

After more than 8 million votes had been counted in the race between Gillum and DeSantis to succeed term-limited Gov. Rick Scott (R) as the next governor of Florida, on Nov. 6, 2018, DeSantis was ahead by just 1 percentage point. DeSantis squeaked it out in a state-mandated machine recount. He went on to become the very model of a strong, common-sense, rule-of-law governor.

But along with that razon-thin victory came an irrefutable and now very pertinent fact: DeSantis owed his victory almost entirely to President Trump. Trump’s endorsement of DeSantis in the primary and then in the general had meant everything to the relatively unknown congressman. It is for that reason that Trump was so shocked — and angered — when DeSantis decided to run against him for the Republican nomination in 2024.

Even with Trump’s endorsement, many people expected a Gillum victory in a strongly Democratic year. Eight years later, with Election Day for governor in Florida just six months away, a number of pundits and experts think that Trump-endorsed Republican Rep. Byron Donalds will cruise to victory. Maybe.

Others believe that a “blue wave” is going to sweep across the country in November — a wave so high and with so much momentum behind it that it could swing the gubernatorial election in Florida to the Democrats. Could be.

But let’s not forget the expected Republican tsunami during the 2022 midterms that fizzled to such an embarrassing degree that Republicans barely won a majority in the House — or the fact that political prognosticators took that humiliation as a sign that Trump’s anticipated comeback in 2024 would be a flop.

Going back to Florida, it should be noted that in the midst of the 2022 Republican collapse, DeSantis engineered a massive 20-point landslide reelection victory. Much of it came as a direct result of his fight against the hated COVID measures popping up across the nation.

Since that resounding victory, the DeSantis brand in Florida has been powerful — so much that a poll from Florida Atlantic University in June of 2024 showed DeSantis’s wife, Casey, crushing Byron Donalds by 24 points in a hypothetical Republican matchup for governor. And yet, in May of 2026, it is Donalds who is all but assured to be the Republican nominee, with Casey DeSantis on the sidelines.

How? And why? The short answer to both is Trump.

Many inside and outside of Florida still believe Trump holds a grudge against DeSantis because of his perceived disloyalty in 2024. And although presidents often don’t endorse a candidate from their own party during the primary, Trump came out fast and furious for Donalds.

DeSantis knows that an endorsement from Trump can be everything. After Trump’s endorsement of Donalds, a James Madison Institute poll in May of 2025 showed the numbers flipped, with Donalds leading Casey DeSantis, 44 percent to 25 percent. Game over.

Casey is thought by many — myself included — to be the logical candidate to replace her husband, to build upon his very popular policies and keep the state red. Now it seems that critical task may fall to Donalds.

Will he win? He is the odds-on-favorite. But coupled with the caveat regarding a potential blue wave is the fear of a complacency factor among Florida Republicans.

An April poll from Stetson University shows Donalds leading potential Democratic nominee (and former Republican) David Jolly, 47 percent to 40 percent. That lead shrinks — 46 percent to 42 percent — when Donalds is matched up against Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings. The worrying statistic for Republicans is that approximately 7 percent of voters remain undecided. That number could easily grow.

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