Can China keep up its extraordinary research growth?

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Illustration: Doug John Miller

Is China now the world’s leading producer of high-quality research? There is evidence that it has taken the lead on the volume of highly cited papers produced, but it might still lag behind the United States for the proportion of total research that is of the highest quality. It also depends on what disciplines are being tracked. In the Nature Index, China has a huge lead: its overall Share from September 2024 to August 2025 exceeded 38,000 and is on course to double that of the United States within the next two years. But it’s worth remembering that this covers only a selection of journals in the natural and health sciences.

Nature Index 2026 China