Study Reveals Massive US Participation in Banned Polymarket Platform

A new study by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane reveals that approximately 30 percent of the trading volume on Polymarket’s primary offshore platform originates from the United States. Despite being banned from the platform since 2022 due to federal regulatory violations, US-based users are estimated to have funneled between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion into the crypto-based prediction market between May 2025 and April 2026. These traders frequently utilize VPNs to bypass geolocation restrictions, demonstrating a significant appetite for betting on US-centric events, such as elections and domestic sports.

The research, commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets, highlights a stark disparity between the company’s regulated US-licensed app and its larger, unauthorized global platform. While the licensed Polymarket US app saw roughly $1.6 billion in volume during April 2026, the offshore platform recorded $9 billion in the same period. This suggests that the majority of American activity remains concentrated on the unregulated site, which offers a broader range of speculative markets that are currently inaccessible through legal domestic channels.

This findings carry significant implications for federal regulators, particularly the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). By quantifying the scale of this illicit activity, the study underscores the difficulty of enforcing financial regulations in a decentralized, crypto-native environment. As US traders continue to find ways to circumvent digital blockades, the report serves as a critical indicator of the growing tension between the rapid expansion of prediction markets and the existing legal frameworks designed to oversee derivatives trading. The persistence of this offshore activity poses ongoing challenges for regulators attempting to maintain market integrity and consumer protection in the digital age.