College football best- and worst-case scenarios for every team in the top 25 ahead of 2026

Sifting through rosters and schedules to determine the ceiling and floor for 2026 contenders

Brad Crawford

Apr 13, 2026

9:07 am ET

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16 min read

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Approaching the end of spring practice across college football, now is the time coaching staffs hammer down their projected two-deeps and start glancing at the early-season schedule ahead of the 2026 season.

We're doing the same at CBS Sports, setting expectations for every top 25 team now that recruiting has settled and the onslaught of transfer portal comings and goings is finally over.

Using our previous way-too-early top 25 rankings from January as a guide, here's a look at every team's best- and worst-case scenario ahead of the 2026 season.

1. Ohio State

Best-case scenario: 12-0, 9-0. Without question, the Buckeyes will earn the No. 1 postseason seed if they get through this maniacally challenging schedule under Ryan Day without a blemish. Not only does Ohio State travel to Texas, but the Buckeyes will play Iowa, Indiana and USC away from Columbus and host Oregon and Michigan in November. The connection of Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith must be Heisman-worthy to go unscathed.

Worst-case scenario: 9-3, 7-2. No longer is Ohio State's roster head-and-shoulders better than the other elites in the Big Ten. USC just signed the No. 1 class in recruiting for the first time in 20 years, while the Ducks and Hoosiers continue to go on shopping sprees in the transfer portal. Nine wins might be enough to garner attention from the CFP selection committee when you consider this overall gauntlet the Buckeyes must endure.

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2. Texas

Best-case scenario: 12-0, 9-0. If the Longhorns return the favor and get past the Buckeyes in Week 2, they're going to be the favorite to win the SEC and get to the playoff as a top-4 seed this season. Equipped with one of the most complete rosters in the country and a quarterback who now has plenty of quality starts under his belt, this is the group worthy of being preseason No. 1 -- not last fall's pretenders on the Forty Acres.

Worst-case scenario: 8-4, 6-3. Steve Sarkisian gets the pressure ramped up on him in a major way if Texas wins eight games as a preseason top-10 team and heads back to the Citrus Bowl, well short of title aspirations. There's a chance the Longhorns have the top two players in the 2027 NFL Draft with Arch Manning and Colin Simmons leading both sides of the football, but the schedule has landmines. Environments during trips to Knoxville, Baton Rouge and College Station will be raucous.

3. Georgia

Best-case scenario: 12-0, 9-0. Kirby Smart's team only leaves the state of Georgia four times this season for games against Arkansas, Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina. The annual rivalry against Florida will be played in Atlanta, and the Bulldogs will be favored in all seven home games at Sanford Stadium. The reigning SEC champions appear to have a yellow brick road back to the CFP as long as they get to 10 wins.

Worst-case scenario: 8-4, 6-3. An early-season loss to Arkansas, Oklahoma or Vanderbilt ahead of the showdown at Alabama on Oct. 10 would potentially derail the campaign for the Bulldogs. The back half of the schedule post-Ole Miss is soft in terms of roster comparisons, so it would take an upset loss to Georgia Tech to hit this critically low number of wins.

4. Oregon

Best-case scenario: 11-1, 8-1. The Ducks should be commended for two of three non-conference matchups coming against Boise State and Oklahoma State, two squads we're expecting to reach bowl eligibility this fall. The Big Ten opener is in Los Angeles against Lincoln Riley, then there are three contests with ranked opponents in November. Dante Moore will have another terrific season in this scenario, leading to the program's third straight CFP berth.

Worst-case scenario: 8-4, 6-3. Dan Lanning has never lost more than two conference games in his four seasons as Oregon's coach, but let's say the coordinator departures from his 2026 staff come back to haunt the Ducks. Maybe Oklahoma State -- with an entirely new team under Eric Morris -- shocks Oregon in Stillwater early before the Ducks go 1-3 against the likes of USC, Ohio State, Michigan and Washington. Is it really that far-fetched?

5. Notre Dame

Best-case scenario: 12-0. One of four teams we project as a CFP semifinalist this fall, consider me convinced this will be Notre Dame's best team under Marcus Freeman. Even without Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, the Fighting Irish's two-deep is far superior to at least 11 of their regular-season opponents, with Miami on Nov. 7 in South Bend being the lone squad worthy of being in the argument.

Worst-case scenario: 9-3. Notre Dame's season ends in catastrophe if three losses show up against the three top-25 opponents on the schedule