Pavlovian profile: 2026 Kentucky Derby odds, post position, history and more to know

Get caught up with Pavlovian's past performances, jockey, trainer and full analysis heading into the Run for the Roses

Gene Menez

Apr 30, 2026

1:03 pm ET

•

3 min read

USATSI

If experience wins the Kentucky Derby, then the connections of Pavlovian can start making their way to the winner's circle. This Doug O'Neill trainee already has raced 10 times, which is like an entire career for the modern day thoroughbred. And recently, the quality of his races has started to catch up with the quantity. Pavlovian enters the 2026 Kentucky Derby looking to give O'Neill his third Derby victory. Bet on Pavlovian and the Kentucky Derby at TwinSpires, where new users who click through our links get a supersized $400 sign-up bonus:

16 Pavlovian (30-1)

- Trainer: Doug O'Neill

- Jockey: Edwin Maldonado

- Last race: Second in the Louisiana Derby by a head

- Career record: 10 starts: 2 wins, 4 seconds, 1 third

- Career earnings: $613,450

- Best career Beyer Speed Figure: 90 (Louisiana Derby)

- Sire: Pavel

Below, we'll dig further into Pavlovian as part of our series profiling all the horses competing in the 152nd Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 2. We'll look back into his past performances, what questions need to be answered Saturday and analyze how the post draw affects his chances.

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What to know about Pavlovian

As recently as Valentine's Day, Pavlovian was a middling California-bred, with just one maiden victory in eight starts and a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 71. The only Derby starting gate in his future was Oklahoma's, not Kentucky's.

But something happened on the way to Oklahoma. In the Sunland Derby, with jockey Edwin Maldonado taking the mount, Pavlovian was forwardly placed for the first time and won by a nose, earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 87. Then, one race later, he took a major step up in class in the Louisiana Derby, went to the lead for the first time in his career and almost held off the talented Chad Brown trainee Emerging Market. That runner-up finish earned Pavlovian a 90 Beyer Speed Figure and a spot in the Kentucky Derby.

The change in race tactics and jockey seem to be the biggest reasons for the horse's improvement. He also has gotten better as the races have gotten longer, and the 1¼-mile Kentucky Derby will be his longest race yet.

Though Pavlovian enters the race on an improving pattern, he is a little light on speed figures. He will need to get much faster to even hit the board on Saturday.

But O'Neill has a history of getting horses to run big on the first Saturday in May. He has won the race twice with I'll Have Another (in 2012) and Nyquist (2016).

Pavlovian's morning-line odds at FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET are 30-1, and there's every reason to believe that he will be all of that and even more on Saturday. Claim our jumbo-sized 1/ST BET offer here to get a $500 sign-up bonus:

Post draw analysis

Pavlovian's improvement coincided with him being ridden more aggressively from the start, so expect him to be forward early. One problem: Six Speed, who has better early speed, is drawn just to Pavlovian's outside, which could lead to Pavlovian going faster early than jockey Edwin Maldonado desires. Pavlovian also has had trouble in the past breaking from the gate and if that issue reappears on Saturday, he could find himself in a bad position in this 20-horse field.

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