Morning Report

How the race to replace Don Bacon could threaten Nebraska’s ‘blue dot’

by Jared Gans - 05/12/26 6:51 AM ET

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by Jared Gans - 05/12/26 6:51 AM ET

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In today’s issue:

- Unusual primaries in Nebraska

- Trump pushing gas tax suspension

- Supreme Court’s Alabama ruling

- Democrats consider next steps

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The outcome of today’s primaries to replace GOP Rep. Don Bacon (Neb.) could have dramatic rippling effects for the future of the state’s electoral system.

Democrats have smelled blood in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District since Bacon announced last summer that he wouldn’t seek reelection this year. The moderate Republican fended off multiple Democratic challenges over the past decade in the district, comprised of Omaha and its suburbs.

State Sen. John Cavanaugh and political consultant and activist Denise Powell are the two most prominent Democrats running in the six-person field for the party’s nomination.

Either of them would likely be viewed as at least the slight favorite against the presumptive Republican nominee, Omaha City Council member Brinker Harding. The district is one of just three nationwide that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris and elected a Republican to the House in 2024.

But some Democrats are expressing concern about dominos that could fall if Cavanaugh wins the Democratic primary, and eventually the general election.

Under state law, Republican Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen would be responsible for filling a vacancy that would arise from Cavanaugh leaving his state Senate seat for the House. Republicans already hold a two-thirds supermajority in Nebraska’s unicameral legislature, but one additional pickup for the GOP could give the party the support it needs to change how the Cornhusker State allocates its votes in presidential elections.

Nebraska is one of two states in the country — along with Maine — that distributes its electoral votes to the winner of each of its congressional districts instead of by winner-take-all. That system has been to the chagrin of Republicans in recent years as Democrats have won the 2nd District’s single electoral vote, known as the “blue dot,” in the 2020 and 2024 elections.

Republicans pushed to eliminate that system last year to become a winner-take-all state, but that effort narrowly failed as two Republicans broke ranks to vote with all Democrats against it.

Powell and Douglas County District Court Clerk Crystal Rhoades, another Democrat in the race, have argued a Cavanaugh victory may hand Republicans the support they need to finally change the system, costing Democrats a valuable electoral vote.

Cavanaugh has brushed off the concern, noting that Republicans have already had dominant control of the state government but haven’t changed the system yet.

“They control all of the levers of power in the state of Nebraska, and they haven’t eliminated the blue dot,” he told The New York Times, adding that he expects Democrats would easily make gains in the Legislature this November to offset the potential loss of his seat.

▪ The Hill: Battle for House control heats up in Nebraska.

SENATE GAMBIT: The favorite to win the Democratic primary for Senate has made an unusual promise to voters: quickly drop out of the race.

Cindy Burbank, a retired pharmacy technician, is running in the Democratic primary against William Forbes, a pastor who has been strongly against abortion. Burbank has the support of the Nebraska Democratic Party, but she is explicitly running to help clear the way for independent Dan Osborn.

Osborn is running in his second consecutive Senate race, seeking to oust GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts after losing a race against Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) in 2024. Osborn, a mechanic, is seen as a more competitive candidate than anyone the Democrats could nominate.

Democrats accuse Forbes of being a Republican plant to try to disrupt their plan and take votes away from Osborn if he advances to the general election.

Nebraska Secretary of State Bob Evnen (R) sought to remove Burbank from the ballot because she plans to drop out, but that move was overturned by the state Supreme Court.

▪ Nebraska Public Media: Changes to state ballot measures could impact midterms.

Smart Take with Blake Burman

President Trump just threw his support behind pausing the federal fuel tax. The idea would have to be approved by Congress, where there’s been some bipartisan support. However, states can also eliminate their own taxes on gasoline, which are higher than the federal level in many cases. I asked Kelly Loeffler, the administrator of the Small Business Administration, if the Trump administration wants all