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Rove says new GOP election maps could backfire in House races

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by Max Rego - 05/11/26 12:46 PM ET

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by Max Rego - 05/11/26 12:46 PM ET

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Republican strategist Karl Rove said Sunday that his party’s redistricting push could have unintended consequences in the midterms.

When host Trey Gowdy asked Rove on “Sunday Night in America” whether multiple GOP-controlled state legislatures redrawing their congressional maps could “backfire” on the party, the longtime political consultant replied, “Oh sure.”

Rove continued, “You could in essence take … like here in Texas, take big cities, which are typically Democrat, and split them up among several sort of suburban and rural Republicans and thereby reduce their margin and make [House Republicans] more vulnerable in an election year.”

Elsewhere in the South, Rove said that splitting up majority-Black districts into multiple red districts could “make things more problematic in a swing year” for the GOP, which is clinging to a narrow 217-212 majority in the upper chamber.

“Nothing ever plays out exactly in politics as we think it does,” Rove noted.

Republicans in the state legislatures of Texas, Florida, Missouri and North Carolina have redrawn their state’s congressional maps since last summer, resulting in 11 pickup opportunities for the majority party in the House come November.

The GOP has the opportunity for one additional pickup in Ohio, as the state’s redistricting commission redrew its congressional maps in the fall after its 2022 congressional maps failed to reach a threshold of bipartisan support.

California voters also voted in November to allow state lawmakers to redraw the Golden State’s congressional maps, a move that could result in five pickups for Democrats. But in Virginia, the state Supreme Court struck down a similar redistricting referendum on Friday, invalidating a newly adopted map that could have expanded Democrats’ edge in the state by four seats.

Lawmakers in Louisiana, meanwhile, are redrawing their state’s congressional maps after the Supreme Court ruled that the creation of a second majority-Black district there was an unconstitutional racial gerrymander — a decision that updated Section 2 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act.

Tennessee lawmakers have already redrawn their maps after the high court’s ruling, while other southern states could be next.

While the GOP has the mathematical edge when it comes to pickup opportunities afforded by redistricting, Rove was unsure whether it will ensure that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) keeps his title for another Congress.

Using a white board to prove his point, the strategist said that the redistricting battle will likely result in Republicans gaining between eight and 12 seats and Democrats gaining between five and six seats.

However, Rove said that President Trump’s low approval rating and the “normal malaise” in midterm elections for the incumbent president’s party, the GOP still faces an uphill battle in the House.

“It’s hard to believe that the Republican losses are only going to be five or six seats,” he added.

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