Defense

US-Iran talks take sudden, uncertain shift with sweeping claims on both sides

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by Ellen Mitchell, Laura Kelly and Filip Timotija - 04/17/26 6:51 PM ET

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by Ellen Mitchell, Laura Kelly and Filip Timotija - 04/17/26 6:51 PM ET

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President Trump sprinted ahead Friday to take a victory lap celebrating what he said was Iran’s agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz and a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

But conflicting statements from Iranian officials and Israeli pushback on the terms of the ceasefire with Lebanon are raising doubt about the president’s actual successes.

“I’m concerned that, in this round, Iran came out with the upper hand,” Danny Citrinowicz, senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, posted on the social platform X.

Trump began Friday morning with a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon in effect and celebrated what he called the opening of the “Strait of Iran,” referring to the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Embassy in Zimbabwe joked that the term meant Trump was in a good mood.

Then Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, wrote on X late Friday that with the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continuing, the waterway “will not remain open.”

“The President of the United States made seven claims in one hour, all seven of which were false,” he wrote, according to a translation.

The waterway otherwise remains “effectively closed” as vessel movements are confined to corridors that require approval, according to Kpler, a go-to source for global trade intelligence.

Still, markets earlier Friday responded with “cautious optimism, reflected in a short-term pullback in prices,” but any meaningful recovery in the passage of oil, gas and other goods including fertilizer “depends on a gradual return of shipowners, beginning with a tentative ‘first movers’ phase that may restore only a fraction of capacity,” Kpler said Friday.

“A full normalization in trade and confidence is likely to take months, not weeks.”

The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is “essential” for further progress in U.S.-Iran talks, but the Strait of Hormuz remains the top concern for Trump over its impact on the global economy, according to Jon Hoffman, a research fellow at Cato Institute.

“This war has quickly become a contest of who can absorb the most pain. Here, time is on Iran’s side — the longer the strait remains closed, the greater the political costs will be for President Trump,” Hoffman told The Hill on Friday.

Larry Haas, a senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC), said he does not expect the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire to last long since the “underlying fight isn’t between Israel and Lebanon.”

“Although there is no official peace between them, they don’t operate in ways that directly threaten one another,” Haas told The Hill on Friday. “The underlying fight continues to be between Israel and Hezbollah, and it’s just a matter of time before Hezbollah resumes that fight and Israel responds.”

Even as the terms of the strait’s opening are unclear, the limited progress suggests Trump and Tehran are looking to soften the ground ahead of a potential second round of talks for a deal to end the war. Trump has suggested he would fly to Islamabad to sign an agreement, praising the Pakistanis for their mediation.

Europe draws up plan B for strait

Meanwhile, European countries are working on a plan B to ensure movement through the Strait of Hormuz, gathering 49 countries in person and virtually for a meeting Friday to discuss plans of action.

French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a “neutral” military operation to protect shipping in the strait.

“We will accelerate the planning work we have already launched, coordinated with the United Kingdom, to enable the establishment of a neutral mission – distinct from the belligerents – to support and secure merchant vessels transiting the Gulf,” Macron said in a statement.

Macron said France and the U.K. will work in close coordination with the Americans and Israelis and on deconfliction efforts with the Iranians.

Trump, however, rejected other countries’ involvement, particularly European NATO allies.

“Now that the Hormuz Strait situation is over, I received a call from NATO asking if we would need some help. I TOLD THEM TO STAY AWAY UNLESS THEY JUST WANT TO LOAD UP THEIR SHIPS WITH OIL. They were useless when needed, a Paper Tiger,” Trump posted on social media.

Terms of the deal

Trump, while celebrating the reopening of the strait Friday, noted that the U.S. blockade installed