Administration

Nate Silver on recent polling: Trump has ‘profound problems’

by Sarah Davis - 03/31/26 9:56 AM ET

NOW PLAYING

Pollster Nate Silver said President Trump has “profound problems” as the president’s job approval rating took a significant hit in recent surveys.

Silver posted a string of posts on social platform X about the downward trend, after Trump’s average approval rating fell below 40 percentage points last week.

Two separate surveys released last week by The Associated Press-NORC Research Center and Quinnipiac University found a 38 percent approval rating for the president, while a University of Massachusetts Amherst survey reported Trump’s lowest approval rating yet, 33 percent.

A Fox News poll released last Wednesday found that 41 percent of respondents supported how the president has handled his job. A Harvard-sponsored poll from last week pinned his approval rating at 43 percent.

This dip comes amid the Trump administration’s ongoing military operations against Iran. The U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes against the country on Feb. 28 after the two sides failed to reach an agreement on a new nuclear deal.

Iranian counterstrikes in the Gulf region have effectively halted the passage of oil-carrying ships through the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil trading corridor in the global economy. The price of international benchmark Brent crude oil has skyrocketed, hitting a trade value of around $118 a barrel on Tuesday morning.

Prior to the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, Brent crude oil was trading around $70 a barrel.

The price of gas has also increased. In the U.S., the national average price of standard gas hit $4 a gallon on Tuesday morning, up over a dollar from a month ago, according to AAA.

While Silver acknowledged that rising fuel prices resulting from the conflict are a “big factor” in the president’s approval ratings, he wrote that there are also “signs of erosion among his base.”

“Only 22% of Americans have a *strongly* favorable view of Trump,” the pollster wrote on X. “2028 aspirants are starting to pull away from him. One wonders about the effect of his age, too.”

The economy is expected to play a big role in the upcoming midterm elections in November, with House Democrats focusing on a message of affordability in their effort to win back control of the chamber.

Trump largely ran on promises to address cost of living concerns during his 2024 presidential campaign. However, the economic hits resulting from the military campaign against Iran and inflation in the U.S. have been a particular weak point for the president in recent surveys.

Add as preferred source on Google