Opinion > Opinions - National Security The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the view of The Hill Operation Epic Fury: ‘Tell me how this ends.’ by Dov Zakheim, opinion contributor - 03/06/26 10:30 AM ET by Dov Zakheim, opinion contributor - 03/06/26 10:30 AM ET Share ✕ LinkedIn LinkedIn Email Email NOW PLAYING In the early days of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, then Major-General David Petraeus said , “tell me how this ends.” At the time, no one really knew. The first American withdrawal took place in 2011. The second, after American forces returned to fight the Islamic State terrorist faction, took place in 2021. The third only is taking place this year. Just as no one could really answer Petraeus’ question, no one can predict just how the war with Iran will go on. President Trump has stated that the war could continue for four or five weeks but “could go longer.” How long will very much depend on the resilience of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Yet even when the bombing stops, there is no clear scenario as to what might follow. There are at least half a dozen possible outcomes of this latest iteration of America and Israel’s war with Iran. Iran’s Assembly of Experts reportedly elected Ayatollah Khamenei’s son , Mojtaba, to replace his father at the helm of the Islamic Republic. Mojtaba Khamenei has close ties to and was the preferred candidate of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that his father effectively led. Like his father — perhaps even more so — he is reputed to be a hard-liner. President Trump disapproves of this choice , if it is in fact real. Yet were Mojtaba to assume power, it is not at all clear whether he would continue to pursue his father’s policies — especially his level of hostility toward the U.S. and Israel. It is not merely a question of whether he might fear for his life, as his father did. He might conclude that an accommodation with the West is the only way to rebuild his military capacity and resuscitate the country’s anemic economy. Were he to change course, Khamenei would be following in the footsteps of Charles de Gaulle’s reversal on Algerian independence, F.W. de Klerk’s termination of apartheid, and for that matter, Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa’s turn away from Islamic extremism. Another scenario, especially if the guard corps becomes disillusioned with Khamenei, would see one of its surviving generals take control. Even if that were to take place, that person might either maintain Tehran’s hard line or, in order to bolster the country’s economy (which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps dominates), choose a milder course involving some degree of reconciliation with the West. Yet another scenario would have Reza Pahlavi , son of the late Shah, return from his exile in the U.S. to lead his native country in some capacity. Whether Pahlavi would retain his leadership for long is not at all clear, however. On the one hand, both Vietnam’s Ho Chi Minh and Iran’s Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini successfully returned from exile to lead their respective countries. On the other, Ahmed Chalabi , the exiled putative leader of the opposition to Saddam Hussein, was never able to lead Iraq after Saddam’s fall. Pahlavi could win the support of Iran’s regular army, which has no love for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Thus far, the army has mostly stood aside and left the fighting to the latter. Should the army support Pahlavi, his chances for leadership would significantly improve.  There is also the possibility that Iran simply plunges into civil war, as Iraq did three years after the 2003 American attack. The country is bitterly divided between those who have supported the Mullahs throughout their 47-year rule and those who seek a more democratic and secular leadership, like the protesters of 2009 , of 2011 to 2012 and of 2017 to 2018 and of the last several months . Iran also suffers from ethnic divides. The Kurds in the west and northwest and the Baluch in the southeast have both opposed domination by Tehran, whether under the Shah or the mullahs. The various Kurdish political parties have now united to demand regime change and some degree of independence. Washington is reportedly encouraging a Kurdish uprising. Should the Kurds once again revolt, the Baluch might follow suit. A civil war could result in the fracturing of what is essentially an Iranian empire. The foregoing list of scenarios may not even be comprehensive. Much will depend on the length and nature of the current conflict, especially if Trump commits  land forces to Operation Epic Fury, as the attack is called. Nevertheless, as Petraeus presciently observed in the earliest stages of Iraq war, and as our experiences in both Afghanistan and Iraq clearly demonstrated, Trump’s  stated desire  to replace the regime in Te