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Cook Political Report shifts 5 House races toward Democrats

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by Max Rego - 04/07/26 8:46 PM ET

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by Max Rego - 04/07/26 8:46 PM ET

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The Cook Political Report on Tuesday shifted five House races toward Democrats and one toward Republicans, as the minority party seeks to take back control of the House in the November midterms.

The report moved Rep. Greg Landsman’s (D-Ohio) race from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democrat,” Reps. Emilia Sykes’ (D-Ohio) and Nellie Pou’s races from “Lean Democrat” to “Likely Democrat,” Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar’s (R-Fla.) race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” and Rep. Rob Bresnahan’s (R-Pa.) race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.”

It also moved Rep. Jeff Hurd’s (R-Colo.) race from “Likely Republican” to “Solid Republican,” citing President Trump reversing course and endorsing Hurd last month after previously endorsing his primary opponent, Hope Scheppelman. Trump said last month that Scheppelman would suspend her campaign to join his administration “in a capacity to be determined.”

Erin Covey, the House editor for the report, wrote that a “bleak” political environment for the GOP is driving the latest shifts. She noted that “even before” the president’s approval rating “reached a nadir amid spiking gas prices and an unpopular war with Iran, special and off-year elections showed Democrats with a significant enthusiasm advantage and Republicans were trailing the national generic ballot by five to six points.”

The GOP holds a 217-214 edge in the House, while independent Rep. Kevin Kiley (Calif.) caucuses with Republicans and three seats are vacant.

Republican Clay Fuller on Tuesday won a runoff election to fill one of those three vacant seats in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District, previously held by former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.).

A special election to fill the vacant seat in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, formerly held by now-Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D), is set for April 16.

“The battleground lines are coming into focus as Republicans defend their tenuous hold on the House,” Covey added. “The number of truly competitive districts remains relatively small: With these latest changes, 18 Republicans sit in races rated Toss Up, Lean Republican, and Lean Democrat, compared to 16 Democrats in these categories.

“But of those Republicans, 14 are in Toss Up, giving Democrats plenty of opportunities to flip the three seats they need for a majority next year.”

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