2026 Masters predictions: Nine trends that will determine next green jacket winner at Augusta National

Augusta National is the only course to host a major every season, which makes the Masters the most predictive of the grand slam championships

Patrick McDonald

Apr 8, 2026

1:00 pm ET

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7 min read

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Ask 100 different people who they would like to win this year's Masters, and you may get 10-20 different answers. With a relatively limited field of 92 players, the variety of selections is nevertheless higher than in years past.

The last four Masters have been defined by the best player of the early part of the season asserting his dominance at Augusta National to claim the first major of the year. Scottie Scheffler did this twice. Jon Rahm won three times before his Masters victory in 2023. Rory McIlroy won a signature event and The Players Championship before completing the career grand slam last year.

It has been a relatively simple task to sort a player as either a contender or a pretender, but the 2026 Masters is proving to be more difficult. There has been only one multiple-time PGA Tour winner so far this season (Chris Gotterup), and he arrives having never played Augusta National in competition. Bryson DeChambeau has won twice on LIV Golf, but will his underlying metrics hold up under scrutiny?

The staples from the PGA Tour, meanwhile, have been nowhere to be seen as Scheffler, McIlroy, Players Championship winner Cameron Young and last year's runner-up, Justin Rose, have not teed it up since TPC Sawgrass. That is where Collin Morikawa was forced to withdraw; his health is a question in itself.

CBS Sports aims to provide answers to the simple question of, "Who will win the Masters?" strictly through trends and statistical analysis. The numbers will do the talking as we identify this year's most likely Masters contenders.

Let's take a look back at the 10 most recent green jacket winners and identify the trends that tie them together as we whittle down the field of players to pinpoint this year's champion. Further crystallizing the field, check out a full slate of 2026 Masters picks and expert predictions from our staff, including projected winners, head-to-head battles, emerging debutants and much more.

Watch all four rounds of the 2026 Masters with expanded coverage from CBS Sports. It starts Thursday with Masters Live as we follow the best in the world on Featured Groups, Amen Corner and holes 15 & 16. Watch those streams live across Paramount+, CBSSports.com and the CBS Sports App with extended broadcast coverage Saturday and Sunday from 12-2 p.m. on Paramount+ and 2-7 p.m. on CBS.

1. What's your age again?

The 2026 Masters represents the 40th anniversary of one of the most memorable of all time. Jack Nicklaus, at age 46, fired a second-nine 30 in the final round to claim his sixth and final green jacket. While there have been legends who have found magic around Augusta National since, it has been difficult to sustain across four rounds. If a player is over the age of 46, unfortunately, he is unlikely to win the first major of the season.

Eliminated (7): Fred Couples, Vijay Singh, Mike Weir, Jose Maria Olazabal, Angel Cabrera, Zach Johnson, Bubba Watson

2. Maybe don't remember your first time

Only three players have won the Masters in their first attempt. Fuzzy Zoeller was the most recent to do so back in 1979. (This will be the first Masters since Zoeller's passing in November 2025). Zoeller actually stands apart from the short pack as Horton Smith won the first Masters and Gene Sarazen claimed the second. Debutants are arriving unafraid and with plenty of confidence as Sungjae Im, Will Zalatoris and Ludvig Åberg have all threatened the last few years, but until another first-timer wins, they will be eliminated by this process.

Eliminated (22): Michael Brennan, Jacob Bridgeman, Ethan Fang (a), Ryan Gerard, Chris Gotterup, Ben Griffin, Harry Hall, Jackson Herrington (a), Brandon Holtz (a), Mason Howell (a), Casey Jarvis, Naoyuki Kataoka, John Keefer, Fifa Laopakdee (a), Tom McKibbin, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, Andrew Novak, Marco Penge, Mateo Pulcini (a), Kristoffer Reitan, Samuel Stevens, Sami Valimaki

3. It's a steady climb

Augusta National is kind to its past champions, and it is kind to those who have figured out the puzzle a few times before. There is nuance, subtleness and a certain style of golfer who can traverse his golf ball through the Georgia pines. Seven of the last 10 Masters champions had at least one top-five finish in their Masters careers before donning the green jacket. All 10 previously collected a top-40 result.

Eliminated (6): Wyndham Clark, Nico Echavarria, Jake Knapp, Alex Noren, Carlos Ortiz, Aldrich Potgieter

4. What have you done for me lately?

Seven of the last 10 green jacket holders had already won in the same season by the time they arrived at Augusta National. The last four -- Scheffler (twice), Rahm and McIlroy -- all