2026 NCAA Tournament: Which First Four team has the best chance to make a deep March Madness run?

Since the First Four started in 2011, 13 of its teams have won multiple NCAA Tournament games

Zachary Pereles

Mar 16, 2026

6:15 pm ET

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6 min read

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It's a commonly held belief that the NCAA Tournament begins this Thursday. After all, you have until Thursday at 12:15 p.m. ET -- when (8) Ohio State vs. (9) TCU tips off -- to join CBS Sports' Men's Bracket Games.

And sure, Thursday is the first day of true madness, with tip times ranging from just after noon Eastern until after 10 p.m., when (2) Houston takes on (15) Idaho. It's called the "First Round" after all. But since 2011, the idea that the First Round is really the first taste of March Madness is a misconception.

That's because, since 2011, we've had the First Four: the Tuesday- and Wednesday-night games in Dayton, Ohio. This year, doing the honors of actually beginning the NCAA Tournament are ...

First Four

Tuesday, March 17

UD Arena (Dayton)

Time (ET)GameTV / Stream6:40 p.m.(16) UMBC vs. (16) Howard

truTV (watch live)9:15 p.m.(11) Texas vs. (11) NC State

truTV (watch live)Wednesday, March 18

UD Arena (Dayton)

Time (ET)GameTV / Stream6:40 p.m.(16) Prairie View A&M vs. (16) Lehigh

truTV (watch live)9:15 p.m.(11) Miami (Ohio) vs. (11) SMU

truTV (watch live)Ignore them at your own peril: Since 2011, 13 teams that won a First Four game went on to win at least one more tournament game.

YearTeamResult2011(11) VCUFinal Four2012(12) South FloridaSecond round2013(13) La SalleSweet 162014(11) TennesseeSweet 162015(11) DaytonSecond round2016(11) Wichita StSecond round2017(11) USCSecond round2018(11) SyracuseSweet 162021(11) UCLAFinal Four2022(11) Notre DameSecond round2023(16) Fairleigh DickinsonSecond round2023(11) PittsburghSecond round2024(10) ColoradoSecond roundLast year was just the second time that no First Four team advanced past the First Round. The other time it happened, in 2019, led to a major breakthrough in the next tournament: UCLA going from First Four to Final Four in 2021 (there was no NCAA Tournament in 2020). Could we see history repeat itself?

March Madness® is better with friends, especially when you beat them! Get your bracket pools ready now and invite your friends, family and co-workers to play.

With all due respect to No. 16 seeds UMBC, Howard, Prairie View A&M and Lehigh, we'll focus on the No. 11 seeds, ranking their chances to advance past not only the First Four, but the first round, too.

1. SMU

SMU is headed to the dance for the first time since 2017, but the Mustangs are limping into it having lost five of their last six. Lucky for them, though, one of their key players is no longer actually limping. After missing the team's last five games, guard B.J. Edwards is expected back for the NCAA Tournament, a development the program announced loud and clear leading up to Selection Sunday.

We're a big fan of good guard play in March, and in Edwards and Boopie Miller, the Mustangs have two capable lead guards. Fifth-year wing Jaron Pierre Jr. can really fill it up, too: He's had 20+ points in three of SMU's last five games, and he shoots 53% from 2 and 38% from 3.

The 3-point potency is a big part of the Mustangs' appeal: They shot 40% from deep in ACC play, best in the conference. Miller is at 41%, Edwards is at 37%, and Corey Washington is at 40%. Big man Samet Yigitoglu is an effective big man who earns the Mustangs extra possessions.

Overall, this team simply has the makeup of one that can make noise. The guard play can be explosive, the shooting comes from all over, and the experience factor is very much there as well: KenPom has Andy Enfield's team with the fifth-most D-I experience in the country. The Mustangs have a wide range of outcomes, but that's what we're looking for in a First Four team: one that can make a run if given the chance.

2. NC State

All year long, NC State has seemingly left everyone -- including coach Will Wade -- wanting more. The Wolfpack show really good signs and then stumble over themselves with uninspired performances. Case in point: On Jan. 20, three days after a home loss to ACC cellar dweller Georgia Tech, NC State went to Clemson and won in overtime. That kicked off a six-game winning streak. It looked like a team finding its stride.

Then NC State lost by 41(!) to Louisville, lost by one to Miami, pounded short-handed North Carolina and then dropped its final four games of the regular season, including losses to lowly Notre Dame and Stanford and 29-point defeats against Virginia and Duke.

The Wolfpack lacks the requisite size to hang with some of the country's lengthiest teams. Ven-Allen Lubin, listed at 6-foot-9, is the tallest player in the rotation. They don't generate second chances and can struggle cleaning up the defensive boards, too. NC State finished 12th in defensive efficiency in ACC play and 18th (dead last) in defensive rebounding rate.

But then there's that offense. Th