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Cornyn, Paxton in dead heat with Talarico as early voting begins for Texas Senate GOP runoff: Poll

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by Max Rego - 05/18/26 8:43 PM ET

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by Max Rego - 05/18/26 8:43 PM ET

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The winner of the GOP runoff in the Texas Senate race between Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton faces a closely contested matchup against Democratic nominee James Talarico, according to a new poll from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University.

The survey, released Monday, found that in a hypothetical general election matchup between Cornyn and Talarico, the incumbent Republican holds a 45 percent to 44 percent edge. Meanwhile, 3 percent of respondents backed Libertarian Ted Brown and 8 percent were unsure.

In a Paxton-Talarico contest, the two are tied at 45 percent, while 2 percent supported Brown and 8 percent were unsure.

The survey of 1,223 registered voters in Texas, which the center conducted from April 22 to May 6, had a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.

One thing that Talarico has over the two Republicans is favorability, according to the poll. More than 45 percent of respondents viewed the national political newcomer favorably, while 35 percent viewed him unfavorably and 19 percent said they did not know enough about him to have an opinion.

Just 37 percent of respondents had a favorable view of Cornyn, a four-term incumbent who was the Lone Star State’s attorney general prior to running for Senate, while 49 percent viewed him unfavorably and 14 percent did not have an opinion.

As for Paxton, whose ex-wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton (R) accused him of infidelity during divorce proceedings last year, 42 percent of respondents viewed him favorably, 48 percent viewed him unfavorably and 10 percent did not have an opinion.

Early voting in the runoff between Cornyn and Paxton began on Monday and runs until Friday, with the final day to cast a ballot falling on May 26.

The incumbent senator got a plurality of support in the March primary by roughly 1.5 percentage points over Paxton, but failed to secure the majority support needed to avoid a runoff — as Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) received more than 13.5 percent of the primary vote.

In a survey of likely runoff voters that the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs conducted from April 28 through May 1, 48 percent of respondents backed Paxton, 45 percent supported Cornyn and 7 percent were unsure. Paxton’s edge in that poll was slightly greater that the margin of error of 2.83 percentage points.

Over the final days of the campaign, both Republicans are touting their support for President Trump — who has not endorsed a candidate. Cornyn on Monday also touted endorsements from former Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) and Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), the latter of whom is not seeking reelection.

Talarico, meanwhile, campaigned with former President Obama and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa in Texas last week.

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