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Virginia redistricting battle enters home stretch

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by Julia Mueller - 04/11/26 5:00 PM ET

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by Julia Mueller - 04/11/26 5:00 PM ET

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Democrats’ push to redistrict in Virginia is entering the home stretch as the party seeks to solidify an advantage in four more House districts ahead of the November midterms.

Heavyweight donors have poured millions of dollars into the April 21 contest, which asks Virginians to consider a constitutional amendment that would redraw the Old Dominion’s maps mid-decade and give the party the edge in all but one of 11 congressional districts.

The districts currently held by Republicans are outpacing blue districts in turnout, according to data from the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP), as polls show just a slim majority of voters support the push. But Democrats have a significant fundraising advantage and ‘yes’-vote organizers say a string of new early voting locations could give the effort an energy surge this weekend, fueling hopes that the party could get a boost in the battle for control of Congress.

“It’s going to be a close race,” said Virginia Democratic strategist Jared Leopold. “It is a unique special election where both Republicans and Democrats are pretty motivated.”

Virginia offers Democrats what is likely their last chance to pass a set of new congressional lines ahead of the midterms, in which they need to net just three seats to flip Republican’s narrow majority in the lower chamber.

Old Dominion voters are weighing in on whether to amend their state constitution to let the General Assembly “temporarily adopt new congressional districts,” circumventing a bipartisan independent redistricting commission “to restore fairness in the upcoming elections, while ensuring Virginia’s standard redistricting process resumes for all future redistricting after the 2030 census.”

If approved by voters later this month, the proposed map could expand Democrats from a 6-5 majority in the state’s House delegation to a 10-1 advantage. If rejected, the current maps would stay in place until at least the 2030 Census.

National Democrats have spent big in hopes of getting the plan across the finish line — and a group linked to tech billionaire and GOP donor Peter Thiel funneled funds into the opposition this week.

In another signal of the stakes for both sides of the aisle, the referendum has seen surprisingly strong turnout in early voting, despite the wonky scheduling of the April 21 vote — keeping pace with the early voting numbers in the state’s 2025 general election.

Turnout has appeared stronger in districts currently held by Republicans, which Karen Hult, a political science professor at Virginia Tech, said should make Democrats “quite concerned” about their prospects.

But Virginians for Fair Elections, a group that’s urging a yes vote on the amendment, said they’re encouraged by the numbers so far and optimistic about a string of satellite early voting locations that are set to open up this weekend, giving more Democrats easier access to the polls.

“We’re seeing strong early vote momentum across the Commonwealth, and Super Saturday is about taking that to the next level by making it easier than ever for people cast a ballot close to home,” said Dan Gottlieb, communications director for the vote-yes campaign.

Leopold acknowledged a “slower burn on the ‘yes’ side,” but argued “you’re starting to see some real pickups” with more expected this weekend.

Democrats are also hopeful about a string of satellite early voting locations that are set to open up this weekend, giving more Democrats access to get to the polls as ‘yes’-vote proponents make a “Super Saturday” push to turn out voters.

“It’s going to be a slightly slower burn on the ‘yes’ side, but you’re starting to see some real pickups. And I think you’re going to see even more this Saturday,” said Leopold.

“It’s going to make a big difference to have more of these satellite locations open,” he continued. “If you’re in Fairfax County, there’s three early voting locations in the county of more than a million people. So if you’re in a lot of places, you have to drive 20 or 30 minutes to get to an early voting location.”

So far, more than $49 million has been funneled into Virginians for Fair Elections, according to VPAP data.

That includes more than $30 million from House Majority Forward, a nonprofit aligned with Democratic leadership, including $8 million added in the last month. The Fairness Project, a left-leaning advocacy group focused on ballot initiatives, has given $11 million.

Virginians for Fair Maps, a group urging a