Thunder vs. Spurs: Five big questions that will decide the Western Conference Finals

The NBA's next great rivalry has officially arrived, and a trip to the Finals is on the line for the Spurs and Thunder

Brad Botkin

May 16, 2026

2:53 pm ET

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6 min read

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The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs are about to square off for the 2026 Western Conference crown, and with that, the NBA's next great rivalry has officially arrived. We've known it was coming. We know it's not going anywhere for maybe the next decade as set up as these teams are for the long run. This will be absolute theatre. Let's get into five big questions heading into the series we've all been waiting for.

1. Can SGA's scoring level back up?

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is likely about to win his second straight MVP. He has averaged well north of 30 PPG the last two regular seasons, and he averaged 29.9 in last year's playoffs. He's at 29.1 PPG so far in these playoffs, but the bulk of that number comes from his first-round explosion vs. the Suns. He "only" averaged 24.5 against the Lakers and even that number was juiced by a big 35-point performance in the clincher.

I don't think that's going to be enough against the Spurs, even with Jalen Williams set to return. It's a fair bet that a lot of OKC's peripheral production, or at least efficiency, could take a hit as Victor Wembanyama forces a larger chunk of their offense outside of the paint (Chet Holmgren, for instance, only averaged 10.5 points on 38.7% shooting against the Spurs in the regular season), and SGA is going to have to pick up the slack.

I think the Thunder need something very close to 30 PPG in this series from SGA, and even that might be conservative. Can he do that on a heavy diet of pull-up jumpers and 3-pointers? Of course. Will he? We're about to find out.

2. Which team is actually deeper?

The depth in this series is off the charts. Both teams can easily go 10 deep. The Thunder are so loaded that Aaron Wiggins, who would start for a lot of NBA teams, wasn't even in the rotation against the Lakers. Isaiah Joe only played seven minutes in the clincher, but if this thing turns into a 3-point contest as OKC struggles to score in the paint against Wemby, he would be a major swing player.

Look at it through the lens of non-star minutes. Through eight playoff games, the Thunder have won SGA's 105 bench minutes by 59 points with a better offensive rating. Thank you, Ajay Mitchell. The Spurs, meanwhile, destroyed the Blazers and Wolves in Wemby's minutes and stayed at +3 per game in his absences.

There's a case to be made that Dylan Harper and the aforementioned Mitchell should both be starting in this series. I doubt the Spurs go to that, at least not right away, but will the Thunder move Mitchell back to the bench with Jalen Williams set to return? Either way, that's a stud sixth man, and the balanced production continues from there.

So far in these playoffs, the Spurs have six players averaging double-digits while the Thunder basically have five (Isaiah Hartenstein is at 9.9, while Williams has only played two games but we can certainly count him as a high-end scorer).

I have more questions about OKC's top four scorers than I do San Antonio's; Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Harper are rock solid, but Holmgren, as mentioned above, has struggled against Wemby this season, and Williams is coming back after a long injury absence.

Plus, the Thunder might be a little too dependent on Mitchell as a star-level scorer at this point. The hope is that Holmgren and Williams can lighten that load, but if not, the Spurs don't need quite that much from Harper, who can dominate more in stretches and as a non-scoring contributor (offensive rebounds and tough defense, notably). I think Harper is a bit better than Mitchell at this point, all things considered, and I give San Antonio's depth, particularly on the perimeter (which is important, because Wembanyama alone accounts for Holmgren and Hartenstein), a slight nod as well.

3. Who wins a 3-point contest?

On paper, it looks like this could be more of a 3-point series than either of these teams (who average north of 100 combined paint points per game in the playoffs) would be playing. The formula would be the Thunder not being able to finish in the paint on account of Wembanyama's presence, and the Spurs not being able to get there, at least not consistently, in the first place against OKC's stable of perimeter defensive horses (and then, even if they do, Holmgren would arguably be the world's best rim protector if Wemby didn't exist).

That said, Castle, in particular, had a lot of success bullying his way to interior buckets against the Thunder this season (he's a young Jimmy Butler is so many ways). He's probably San Antonio's No. 2 guy at this point, and even if he's forced more outside he's making 44% of his almost five 3-pointers per game so far in these playoffs.

He's key on the