2027 NFL mock draft: Six QBs go in Round 1 in a deep class and Arch Manning isn't QB1 (yet)

Will this class look more like 2024, when six quarterbacks went in Round 1, or like recent drafts, where just a couple quarterbacks heard their names called?

Ryan Wilson

May 10, 2026

4:58 pm ET

•

11 min read

Getty Images

Whether it's a "way-too-early" mock draft, or the final mock draft in late April … it's always about the quarterbacks. The last two years, we've seen four total quarterbacks go in Round 1 after six went in the first 12 picks in 2024. If the 2027 class plays out like we all expect (and let's be honest, that almost never happens), we could see four or five quarterbacks find their way into the first round some 350 days from now.

Let's start at the top. I have Dante Moore going No. 1 overall in this exercise and it shouldn't be hard to see why (though I suspect some folks will take it as a personal affront). At points last fall, Moore was in the QB1 conversation, and he would've almost certainly been the No. 2 overall pick for the Jets had he not returned to Oregon.

Meanwhile, the inertia for Arch Manning as QB1 feels all but unstoppable -- fueled in part by the nonstop media momentum, as well as an NFL that sees bloodlines as a buffer against the inherent uncertainty that comes with identifying a franchise quarterback.

Then there's Jayden Maiava, who I thought might have been a first-rounder in '26 had he declared. Add names like Darien Mensah, CJ Carr and Drew Mestemaker (not to mention Julian Sayin, Trinidad Chambliss, John Mateer, Josh Hoover and Nico Iamaleava, among others) and suddenly this class looks impossibly deep. (Of course, what looks "impossibly deep" in May often turns out to be "slim pickins' 10 months later…)

But before you go too far, it's worth reframing what this actually is. Less a true mock draft and more a living watchlist -- a snapshot of where things stand heading into the 2026 college football season. It's a collection of names, traits and possible trajectories to track as the fall reshapes everything.

So just a friendly reminder: It's early. A lot will change. But if this snapshot holds, the 2027 draft, like the 2024 version, won't just feature quarterbacks, it'll be defined by them.

(And in case you're wondering, in looking back at my way-too-early 2024 mock draft, I had five QBs going in Round 1 -- Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr. … and Quinn Ewers, who ended up being a seventh-rounder. The two I missed on: Jayden Daniels and JJ McCarthy, which is also a good reminder that we'll have 1-2 QBs come out of nowhere to make a first-round push by the time it's all said and done.)

Alright, let's get to it!

Note: The draft order was determined using FanDuel Sportsbook's reverse Super Bowl odds. The Jets have three first-round picks: their own, the Cowboys' from the Quinnen Williams trade and the Colts' from the Sauce Gardner trade. The Cowboys have the Packers' selection from the Micah Parsons trade.

Ranking each team's 2026 NFL Draft class: Chiefs, Browns, Jets crush it; Steelers, Rams, 49ers raise questions

Ryan Wilson

1. Miami Dolphins: Dante Moore, QB, Oregon

Moore would have been the No. 2 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft had he not decided to return to Oregon. He plays with high-end pocket composure, handles pressure well -- and once the play breaks down, is elite out of structure. He showed up in big moments throughout the '25 season (until they ran into the Hoosiers in the CFP) and he's my QB1 because he outplayed Arch Manning -- and every other QB -- in the '26 class.

2. New York Jets: Arch Manning, QB, Texas

Manning got off to a sluggish start in 2025 but finished strong. If he picks up where he left off late last fall, he'll be in the No. 1-overall-pick conversation. Again.

3. Arizona Cardinals: Jayden Maiava, QB, USC

Maiava was one of my favorite players to watch last season; he's a well built, big-armed QB who shows good touch on layered throws, but needs to play with more consistency from start to finish.

4. Cleveland Browns: Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State

Smith is better than Marvin Harrison Jr. coming out of Ohio State. And I'm guessing we'll be comparing him more to the likes of Julio Jones or Megatron by next spring.

5. Tennessee Titans: Colin Simmons, EDGE, Texas

Simmons can win with power, speed and twitch -- he was unstoppable for much of '25 and I only expect him to get better this season.

6. Las Vegas Raiders: Trevor Goosby, OT, Texas

Goosby, who would've likely been a first-rounder had he declared for the '26 draft, has a huge frame and high-end athletic traits that allow him to anchor effectively against power, though he remains a raw prospect who can struggle with quicker pass rushers.

7. New Orleans Saints: Dylan Stewart, EDGE, South Carolina

Stewart uses his long frame, tenacity and overpowering strength to set the edge against the run. He's also surprisingly twitched up as a pass rusher, con