America’s ‘silent army’ of skilled tradespeople are retiring with no one to replace them—and the price tag could hit $1 trillion a year

The workers who keep America’s buildings running are disappearing—and the U.S. isn’t replacing them fast enough to keep the lights on, the servers cool, or the labs sterile.

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By 2030, an estimated 2.1 million skilled trades jobs in the U.S. could go unfilled, with potential economic losses reaching $1 trillion annually, according to U.S. Department of Education estimates cited in a new report from JLL shared exclusively with Fortune.

The commercial real estate giant calls the electricians, HVAC technicians, plumbers, pipefitters, and maintenance workers who maintain the country’s built environment a “silent army”—a workforce that is aging out of the industry faster than it can be replaced.

“The silent army, as we normally call them, because they are hidden, invariably, behind the scenes, has been getting harder and harder not only to find, but retain in the industry,” Paul Morgan, JLL’s global COO of real estate management services, told Fortune. Plus, “you’ve got this impending retirement wave that has really been driving the industry a long period of time, and a lack of new entrants.”

Morgan is referring to the fact that millions of tradespeople in the U.S. are nearing or at retirement age. More than 1 in 5 construction workers are currently older than 55, according to Associated Builders and Contractors; as of May 2023, about 39% of electricians were 45 years old or older, a Consumer Affairs report shows; and there’s a 5:2 retirement-to-replacement ratio in manufacturing, construction, and other skilled trades, an Education Department report shows.

The supply-demand imbalance has hit crisis territory. Last year alone, nearly 600,000 jobs were posted for major skilled trades positions in the U.S., while only about 150,000 new workers entered the labor pool through apprenticeship programs, according to JLL.

The problem is particularly acute in facilities management. Some 39% of U.S. facilities managers are above the age of 55 and nearing retirement, compared with 28% across all occupations, according to another report from JLL in 2025. Meanwhile, electrician positions are projected to grow 9.5% through 2034—more than triple the 3.1% average for all occupations—while HVAC technician roles are expected to grow 8.1% over the same period, per JLL.

A hidden workforce behind the AI boom

The shortage has caught the attention of some of the country’s most prominent executives, who argue that the U.S. cannot build the infrastructure for AI it’s betting its economic future on without the people to wire, cool, and maintain it.

Ford CEO Jim Farley has consistently warned about the gap, arguing America’s AI ambitions are running headfirst into a labor wall.

“I think the intent is there, but there’s nothing to backfill the ambition,” Farley told Axios last fall. “How can we reshore all this stuff if we don’t have people to work there?”

Hadrian CEO Chris Power, whose company automates defense manufacturing, has gone further, predicting a wage shock in the trades.

“All the white-collar jobs are going to get automated,” Power said in a recent interview with tech publication Sourcery at the Hill and Valley Forum. “I think we’re going to see massive hyperinflation in blue-collar salaries.” Power added that even with robotic welding on his own factory floor, he still can’t hire enough welders to meet demand from the U.S. Navy.

“Everyone, go tell your kids to quit college and university and go get a welding certification,” Power added. “The country needs you.”

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Morgan argues the skilled trades are foundational to nearly every high-growth sector of the economy—a story he says the industry has failed to tell. But one problem is the lingering perception that blue-collar work isn’t as elite or prestigious as white-collar work.

And that’s a perception that needs to change, Morgan said, because, really, skilled tradespeople are the ones who will literally be powering AI’s future.

“As powerful as AI will become, AI can’t climb a ladder to change the batteries in your smoke detector,” Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison told Fortune earlier this month. “It can’t change your furnace filter; it can’t clean your dryer vent; it can’t repair a hole on your roof.”

Morgan also questioned: “Why wouldn’t somebody want to be an HVAC tech or an electrician or refrigeration specialist in the data center industry?”

“You can’t have AI without data centers supporting them,” he added.

The trades are not what they used to be

As 53% of U.S. commercial building stock was built before 1990, it’s just about time for those structures to be modernized, right as the workforce is running out, according to JLL.

But the jobs necessary to build and power data centers and other commercial spaces aren’t what one would think of as a traditional blue-collar or trades job.

A technician works at an Amazon Web Services AI data center in New Carlisle, Indiana.Getty Images—Noah Berger

Today’s skilled trades, Morgan said, bear l