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The Vance versus Rubio 2028 nomination fight through the lens of chaos

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by Myra Adams, opinion contributor - 04/03/26 7:00 AM ET

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by Myra Adams, opinion contributor - 04/03/26 7:00 AM ET

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This photo combination shows Secretary of State Marco Rubio, left, and Vice President JD Vance, Jan. 21, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Given President Trump’s confrontational nature and disdain for his constitutional duty to transfer power, he will be the most vocal, intrusive lame-duck president in history when the White House race kicks into high gear following the November midterms. Observers can score the contest to form the first post-Trump presidential nomination through that lens.

When the 2028 Republican National Convention takes place, 16 years will have passed since the party nominated someone other than Trump. In this new era, the measure for Republican candidates is whether they support or oppose Trump. Therefore, the president’s name and associated chaos engulf the virtual scorecards.

In every presidential election, unpredictable and surprising events tend to influence the outcome, as most recently seen when then-81-year-old President Joe Biden withdrew from his reelection bid in July 2024. Interestingly, Trump turns 82 in June 2028.

The natural frontrunner, Vice President JD Vance, leads the RealClearPolitics polling average with 45 percent among Republican primary voters. Since he will enjoy the advantages of incumbency, primary challengers could face negative consequences and bad blood.

Compare that to May 2023, when Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis entered the Republican primary race with 25 percent support against Trump’s 56 percent. To project untouchable strength by early 2027, Vance would do well to boost his primary base support by at least 10 points. But there are still troubling signs within Trump’s base.

For example, last weekend at CPAC, Vance won the non-scientific presidential straw poll with 53 percent support — only 8 points higher than his polling average. But considering the ultra-MAGA nature of the audience, Vance really should have done better.

When assessing Vance’s chances of winning the nomination, a key factor is whether Trump will have endorsed his vice president by this time next year. Such an early thumb on the scale could prevent any serious primary competition, saving donors and the party tens of millions of dollars by avoiding contested primaries in multiple states.

Alternatively, if Trump adopts the “see what happens” or “let the voters decide” approach, it will indicate that Vance is on his own — cue the chaos.

If Republicans lose significant power in this year’s midterm elections, the fallout from Iran is still rippling through the economy, and Trump’s job approval stagnates in the 30s or low 40s, Vance might shift into political self-preservation mode and distance himself from his boss. He can then promote his former no-foreign-wars, isolationist stance, criticize Trump’s policies, and sing a “what I will do differently” song on the campaign trail.

Furthermore, this week, Trump’s mental state was assessed by his former White House attorney as “gone.” Do reckless remarks — like Wednesday’s bombing Iran “back to the Stone Ages” and Sunday’s “my favorite thing is to take Iran’s oil” — threaten national security?

Could an increasingly unhinged president drive Vance to invoke the 25th Amendment, in which case the president’s Cabinet would vote whether to remove Trump from office without impeachment? If successful, Vance, the incumbent 48th president, would run untethered from Trump, exploding the chaos scorecard.

That may sound crazy, but remember: At the beginning of June 2024, no one foresaw Kamala Harris becoming the Democrats’ nominee by mid-July.

Speaking of power moves, veteran journalist Tina Brown wrote that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is “eyeing the exit after the midterms to make some real money before he runs for president.” Cha-ching! Rubio’s goal was always to be the first Cuban-Hispanic president.

Technically, Rubio won’t be running against Trump. His 2016 effort against Trump is remembered as a dismal failure in which his anti-Trump comments failed to land — especially about Trump’s supposedly “small hands.” However, if Rubio challenges Trump’s record, as is likely, expect calls of “traitor” and more chaos.

If Brown’s rumor is true, during Rubio’s remaining time at the State Department and his other job as national security adviser, he could oversee both a quagmire in Iran and the Cuban regime’s collapse. Although Cuba