‘Something sinister’: What we know about the FBI probe into dead and missing scientists linked to space and military industries

Good morning. On Fortune’s radar today:

- Markets: U.S. futures are down before the open.

- “Something sinister”: Details on the FBI probe into the dead and missing scientists.

- Iran ceasefire extended but peace talks stall.

- What if the Iran war is really about controlling all the world’s pinchpoints?

- Oil companies are having a good war.

- David Zaslav doesn’t want his $550 million exit package.

- The Strait of Hormuz blockade is making condoms more expensive.

THE MARKETS

Wall Street says buy the war, sell the World Cup

Oil rose to $98 per barrel this morning, up from $95 the day before. S&P 500 futures rose 0.52% before the open in New York. The index closed down 0.63% yesterday at 7,064. Asia was mostly up today. Europe was flat in early trading. Bitcoin remains stuck at $74K.

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A bunch of banks upgraded their price targets for the S&P 500:

- Wells Fargo: “We continue to expect [the S&P 500] overshooting to 7,300 by July,” according to Ohsung Kwon and his colleagues. That will be driven by AI monetization, spending from the OBBBA, and the World Cup. But “The World Cup is likely the last stimulative event of the year. Sell the World Cup,” he told clients.

- Goldman Sachs: “We expect a 7% rise in the S&P 500 to a year-end target of 7,600,” Ben Snider said in a recent note.

- J.P. Morgan: Dubravko Lakos-Bujas and his team have also set a new price target of 7,600. But “should geopolitical tensions move toward a swift resolution (‘Blue Sky’ scenario), we would expect…an S&P 500 level of ~8,000.”

Chart from TradingEconomics.com:

ONE BIG THING

“Something sinister”: FBI will look into dead and missing scientists

Two of them simply vanished. One was found shot dead on his front porch earlier this year. Three of them left home without their phones. Two of them set out carrying handguns. But all of them were linked to the military-space industry, officials say. The FBI told Fortune’s Catherina Gioino, “The FBI is spearheading the effort to look for connections into the missing and deceased scientists. We are working with the Department of Energy, Department of War, and with our state and local law enforcement partners to find answers.” U.S. House Committee Chairman James Comer said, “Once you see the facts, it would suggest that something sinister could be happening and it would be a national security concern.”

IRAN

Ceasefire extended, but peace talks stall as White House officials complain about Trump’s social media commentary

Ceasefire, kinda-sorta: President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, but the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Two ships in the Strait were fired upon by Iranian forces this morning; one of them, a Greek container ship, suffered heavy damage to its bridge.

Talks wilting. The ceasefire extension is intended to allow the fractured Iranian regime to regroup and organize its negotiating position. So many Tehran officials have been killed it has become genuinely difficult for the remaining leaders to figure out what their government’s position should be.

- JD Vance has not flown to Pakistan yet for the scheduled talks. “Here in Islamabad, arrangements remain in place for another round of talks, with parts of the city still sealed off. But hopes of a meeting this week appear, for now, to have faded,” the BBC says.

Speaking anonymously, some White House officials say the president’s continual Truth Social posts—many of them saying things that contradict his previous posts—are hampering the negotiations, Fortune’s Jake Angelo reports.

What Trump said yesterday on social media: “Iran doesn’t want the Strait of Hormuz closed, they want it open so they can make $500 Million Dollars a day (which is, therefore, what they are losing if it is closed!). They only say they want it closed because I have it totally BLOCKADED (CLOSED!), so they merely want to “save face.” People approached me four days ago, saying, “Sir, Iran wants to open up the Strait, immediately.” But if we do that, there can never be a Deal with Iran, unless we blow up the rest of their Country, their leaders included!”

- The war is a boon to oil companies. The closure of the Strait means that oil companies are scrambling to find new sources in the U.S. and anywhere that isn’t the Middle East. Halliburton CEO Jeff Miller said Africa and South America are likely to see increased activity: “In North America, we already see the early signs of recovery. Outside of the Middle East, we expect our international business to grow.” Fortune’s Jordan Blum has the details.

🤔 The Strait theory: Is Trump's real target China, not Iran?

If you have ever wondered why President Trump was willing to risk the inevitable unpopularity of choosing a war with Iran, and then suffer the negative consequences of higher gas prices and falling ratings in the polls, then Macquarie analysts Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry have a theory for you: It’s about controlling all the maritime pinchpoints th