MLB best bets: Expert picks for 2026 player props, including pitcher wins, home runs, stolen bases and more

Let's pick some favorites and dark horses to lead the league this season

Matt Snyder

Mar 24, 2026

1:15 pm ET

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6 min read

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With the 2026 MLB season looming, gamblers who love to stock up on preseason futures props only have a little bit of time left. Plus, for those who don't gamble, it's still fun to think about who the league leaders might be in a few different statistical categories. Let's take a look.

The odds are courtesy of DraftKings.

Home runs

Top four

- Aaron Judge +350

- Shohei Ohtani +400

- Kyle Schwarber +800

- Cal Raleigh +900

From these, I'm eliminating Raleigh right off the bat. He's a great offensive player, but the rigors of catching plus playing in a pitcher paradise mean we're very unlikely to see anything close to a repeat of last year's outlier. None of the top three would surprise me as the home run leader for 2026, but I'll go with Schwarber at those odds.

Longshot play: Matt Olson led the majors with 54 homers in 2023. He's only hit 29 each of the last two years, which is why we can get him at +3000 here. Maybe he gets in a huge groove again? He's as durable as anyone, having played in 162 games for four straight years.

Longer shot play: Jac Caglianone is at +7500. The Royals moved in the fences at Kauffman Stadium and Caglianone has nearly as much raw power as anyone in the game. He struggled in his rookie season, but players often make adjustments once they've had a go-round through the league. He hit well this spring between spring training and the WBC with Italy. Remember, he hit 35 homers in 66 games with Florida as a college junior and had 20 home runs in 66 minor-league games last season.

Strikeouts

Top four

- Tarik Skubal +350

- Paul Skenes +400

- Garrett Crochet +500

- Dylan Cease +1400

Crochet led last year with 255 in 205 ⅓ innings. I've got him leading again, even approaching 300 strikeouts.

Longshot play: I don't think Cole Ragans at +1700 qualifies for a longshot here, but he's my pick if I can't take Crochet. His strikeout rate throughout his career has been amazing and all that's missing is reliable health. How about Logan Gilbert at +4500? He struck out 220 in 2024 and raised his rate last season with 173 in 131 innings. With a full 33 starts, he could work up to around 250 strikeouts and give himself a good shot here.

Longer shot play: I'll go with Jesús Luzardo at +6000. He struck out 216 last season in 183 ⅔ innings. It was a career high in innings, but only by five. Perhaps he's ready to top 200 and will gain some consistency. There's a decent shot here and these odds are enticing.

Stolen bases

Top four

- Elly De La Cruz +300

- Chandler Simpson +450

- Corbin Carroll +700

- Bobby Witt Jr. +700

I'm all over Elly here. Remember, he played most of last season with a partial tear in his left quad. He stole 67 bases in 2024 and I'm expecting him to improve his on-base chops at some point, giving him more chances.

Longshot play: Ronald Acuña Jr. led the majors with 73 steals last time he had a first full season post-ACL surgery and he's at +1500 here. This time around, it's another first full season since ACL surgery. Is it really that simple? Of course not. He's older and now both ACLs are reconstructed, but we know he has it in him. Pete Crow-Armstrong at +1800 is also a decent play in this category.

Longer shot play: I'll zero in on Maikel Garcia. He stole 37 in 2024. That number dipped to 23 last season, but he upped his OBP to .351 and sitting atop the Royals order, there's a decent chance he ramps up the running now in front of the thunder in that lineup.

Runs batted in

Top four

- Aaron Judge +450

- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +900

- Pete Alonso +900

- Junior Caminero, Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani +1400

The MLB leader was Schwarber with 132 last season. Alonso was second with 126, though he's changed teams and leagues. Ohtani hits leadoff. Judge would be a great play, but I find Caminero calling my name on this one. We'll ride with him.

Longshot play: Schwarber is +2500. Hard to pass that up.

Longer shot play: Vinnie Pasquantino is +3500 and he finished sixth in RBI last season. He'll be in a prime RBI spot for what I expect to be a pretty potent Royals offense with some burners in front of him in Garcia and Bobby Witt Jr.

Doubles

Top four

- Bobby Witt Jr. +700

- Jacob Wilson +1500

- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +1600

- Jarren Duran and Ezequiel Tovar +1700

Witt led last year with 47. A few of those would've been homers with the new Kauffman Stadium dimensions, but he'll still be a doubles machine. Of this group, though, I like Duran's odds. He was tied for fourth last season and it was a down year from his 2024.

Longshot play: Future Hall of Famer Freddie Freeman is going to continue to lose home run power as he ages. He'll turn 37 in September. He's also going to continue to sting the b